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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals Start Time, Odds, Free Pick

ACC Basketball on Saturday and the Virginia Cavaliers will take on the Louisville Cardinals at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. The game has a start time of 6:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have Virginia listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 112. 

Analysis: The Virginia Cavaliers have won 9 games in a row since their lone loss of the year, which was to Duke at the end of January. The Cavs are now 28-1 overall and have clinched the top seed in the ACC tournament as they are 16-1 in ACC play with just 1 game to go.  As of now it looks like Virginia is in line for a number 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia has gone 29-10-2 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, but just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. The Cavaliers have not been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 212th in scoring (65.8 ppg), 63rd in shooting (46.3%), 102nd in 3 point shooting (36.0%) and 76th in FT shooting (72.0%). Defensively the Cavs have been excellent this year, ranking 1st in points allowed (50.0 ppg), 3rd in defensive FG% (35.5%) and 23rd in 3 point defense (30.2%). 

The Louisville Cardinals come in having won 3 of their last 4 games, with that loss come at home to Notre dame on Wednesday night.  The Cardinals are now 23-7 overall and 11-1 in the ACC, while going 14-4 at home so far. Louisville has gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home, but just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 home games. Louisville has been a decent offensive team this year, as they come in ranked 107th in scoring (69.9 ppg), 203rd in shooting (43.3%), 311th in 3 point shooting (30.7%) and 281st in FT shooting (66.0%). Defensively the Cardinals have been excellent this year, ranking 19th in points allowed (59.3 ppg),18th in defensive FG% (38.5%) and 7th in 3rd point defense (28.5%). 

Pick: I will look at the Under in this one. How could I not after the first meeting put up just 99 points and the Cards are now weakened offensively with the loss of Jones. Louisville now has just 3 players that average more than 3.4 ppg and that will not get it done vs the top ranked scoring defense in the nation. Louisville is a terrible shooting team, especially from long range and that also makes it tough to score vs this Virginia zone. The Cardinals also know how to play defense as they have allowed just 55.3 ppg at home and Virginia comes in struggling on offense as they have averaged just 62 ppg in their last 5 games. The Under is 5-1-1 in Virginia's last 7 road games and 10-2 in Louisville's last 12 at home. I see around 105 points in this one.  

 

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