Valspar25 Golf Preview: In-Depth Recap and Valero Texas Open Predictions

The Golf Preview Podcast hosted by Will Doctor (0:15–0:28) delivered a passionate and detailed breakdown of the recent Houston Open and an analytical outlook for the upcoming Valero Texas Open. From emotional comebacks to player statistics and betting picks, this episode was a comprehensive guide for any serious golf follower.

Minwoo Lee’s Breakthrough Victory (0:49–6:00)

Will Doctor opened by noting the podcast's financial result—down 5.5 units, bringing the season deficit to 53.8. However, Minwoo Lee was the week’s shining star. At 26, Lee won his first PGA Tour title, opening at 40-1 odds and triumphing despite only hitting 22 of 52 fairways. He was fifth in driving distance (317+ yards) and second in putting, demonstrating that precision on the greens could overcome errant tee shots.

 Quote Analysis: “Master class effort… on and around the greens.” Lee's win highlighted how putting can be more crucial than driving accuracy.

Alejandro Tosti’s Gritty Return (6:01–9:40)

Tosti, despite early struggles in 2024 and a Q-School appearance, tied for fifth after going solo second into Sunday. His final round included three birdies in the last six holes, shooting 68. He was fourth in driving distance at 317 yards and has now achieved two top-ten finishes in 2025.

 Quote Analysis: “Feisty Argentine… can give you entertainment.” Doctor emphasized Tosti’s potential on long, open tracks.

Woodland’s Inspirational Run (9:41–11:10)

Gary Woodland, recovering from brain surgery, posted rounds of 69-64-66-62, sharing second place. It marked his 11th career runner-up finish and most emotional since surgery.

 Quote Analysis: “Had you borderline in tears.” Doctor expressed heartfelt admiration for Woodland’s return to form.

Scheffler’s Near-Miss and Betting Temptation (11:11–13:50)

World No.1 Scottie Scheffler shot a closing 63 after opening 67-62. His best putting performance of 2025, yet he fell one shot behind Lee. Scheffler’s pre-final round odds were +550, peaking at 12-1 during Sunday.

 Quote Analysis: “Very tough to pass on that… couldn’t be betting against Minwoo.” A cautionary tale about betting instincts vs. form.

Card Review: Misses and Bright Spots (13:51–20:05)

Davis Thompson

• T27 (-9): Strong ball striking but suffered from horrific putting, including several missed short putts on Sunday.

Mack Meisner

• T39 (-7): Excelled early but faded due to lack of power. 67th in strokes gained off the tee and hit just 22 fairways, like Lee, but lacked the length.

Tony Finau

• T32: Iron play and a costly four-putt on the 15th in Round 3 derailed a potential Top 20 finish.

Minwoo and Others Shine (20:06–21:50)

Minwoo Lee cashed a Top 20 pick (+160). Bhatia, Campbell, Highsmith, and Phillips joined him as first-time PGA winners in 2025.

Matchups and Picks to Place (21:51–24:20)

• Meisner over Justin Lauer won.

• Ricky Castillo over Sam Ryder lost.

• Top Canadians: Taylor Pendrith beat Mackenzie Hughes with a Sunday 65.

• Tony Finau missed Top 20 by 2 shots, due to poor putting and mental lapse.

Valero Texas Open Preview (24:21–43:35)

Course insights: TPC San Antonio’s Oaks course (7400+ yards) requires driving accuracy over distance. Narrow fairways and firm Bermuda greens make precision key.

Odds Board Analysis

• Ludvig Åberg (12-1): Skipped due to poor chipping/putting history.

• Tommy Fleetwood (14-1): Too pricey despite consistent Top 20s.

• Corey Conners (18-1): Two-time Valero winner, backed for Top 10 (+175).

• Patrick Cantlay (20-1): Poor Texas record; passed.

• Hideki Matsuyama (20-1): Recent form poor in putting and irons.

• Akshay Bhatia (25-1): Defending champ, backed for Top 20 (EV).

• Keegan Bradley (25-1): Hot irons, poor Bermuda putting.

• Jordan Spieth (25-1): Poor value despite past win.

Best Matchup and Picks (43:36–48:47)

• Matchup Pick: Sam Stevens over Matthew Fitzpatrick (-140)

• Top Picks to Place:

  • Corey Conners Top 10 (+175)

  • Akshay Bhatia Top 20 (EV)

Outright Winners

1. Denny McCarthy (30-1): Elite putter, finished 2nd here in 2023.

2. Bud Cauley (55-1): Strong iron/putting, two top 10s coming in.

3. Isaiah Salinda (110-1): Long driver, top 15 in Houston, trending upward.

Sleeper and First Round Picks

• Gary Woodland: Top 10 (+400), coming off emotional runner-up.

• First Round Top 10s:

  • Bud Cauley (+450)

  • Isaiah Salinda (+650)

Lineups and Best Bet

DraftKings Lineup: Bhatia, McCarthy, Cauley, Woodland, Salinda, Meisner
PGA Tour Lineup: Captain: Salinda; Starters: Bhatia, McCarthy, Cauley; Bench: Woodland, Hodges
Scoring Prediction: 16-under wins
Best Bet: Isaiah Salinda Top 20 (+300)