MLB Tuesday Best Bet: Cubs vs A's Over 8 Total Runs

As MLB action heats up, bettors are always looking for value-driven picks, especially in total run markets. Analyst Munaf Manji breaks down his top betting pick for the Tuesday matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Sacramento A's, making a compelling case for betting the over 8 total runs. Based solely on the game transcript, let’s dive deep into the logic, statistics, and projections that form this recommendation.

 The Bet: Over 8 Total Runs

Munaf Manji’s primary betting pick is straightforward: he expects the total number of runs scored in the game between the Cubs and A’s to exceed 8. His rationale is rooted in:

• Pitching trends for both starting pitchers.

• Game environment changes due to venue shift.

• Team scoring patterns in previous games.

 Justin Steele: Predictably Leaky

According to Munaf, Justin Steele, the Cubs’ starting pitcher, has a track record of consistently allowing runs early in games.

"It's usually five innings, two earned runs. Like that's really the standard line for Justin Steele."

In the two starts Steele made this season, both games easily exceeded 8 runs:

• Game 1: Cubs lost 3–6 (Total: 9)

• Game 2: Cubs won 10–6 (Total: 16)

This pattern supports the notion that Steele’s outings lead to high-scoring contests, even if he pitches decently.

? Luis Severino: Control Issues Looming

On the other side, Luis Severino is coming off a “great start” versus the Mariners—but with a caveat. He issued 4 walks, a potential sign of control issues.

"If he does get into the realm of giving up two, three, four walks again, I think the Cubs can capitalize on that."

Walks lead to baserunners, and baserunners lead to scoring chances. This is especially crucial when paired with a Cubs offense that just scored 10 runs in a recent game.

? Ballpark Impact: Coliseum to Sacramento

Another underrated angle in Munaf’s breakdown is the change of venue. With the A’s now playing in Sacramento, rather than Oakland Coliseum, game dynamics may shift.

"Going from the Coliseum to now playing in Sacramento...they won't have that out territory playing on a football field."

The absence of extended foul territory, typical of a football-converted field, could lead to fewer foul-outs and more balls in play, meaning more scoring opportunities.

 Statistical Summary

Justin Steele (Cubs)

• Average: 5 innings, 2 earned runs

• Game outcomes: 3–6 loss and 10–6 win

Luis Severino (A's)

• Recent game: 4 walks vs Mariners

• Control consistency a concern

Cubs Team Trend

• Scoring 10+ runs possible

• Offense has capitalized on weak control pitching

Sacramento A’s Trend

• Scoring potential elevated by ballpark shift

 Why This Over Bet Makes Sense

Munaf’s bet is based on three reinforcing angles:

1. Pitcher trends: Both starters are vulnerable to allowing runs in different ways.

2. Statistical history: Steele’s games have gone over in both starts.

3. Venue change: Sacramento’s stadium may foster more offense than the spacious Coliseum.

He doesn’t rely on hype or speculation—just raw performance, setting, and logic.

Final Thoughts

If betting totals is your game, the Cubs vs A's matchup offers a textbook scenario where trends and conditions all point toward a high-scoring affair. Justin Steele’s early-game vulnerabilities, Luis Severino’s control inconsistencies, and the stadium shift all suggest that over 8 runs is not just probable—it’s logical.