? Valero Texas Open 2025: Betting Picks, Predictions & Player Matchups Breakdown
The Valero Texas Open offers a compelling battleground for savvy golf bettors. In this exclusive breakdown, we analyze head-to-head and tournament three-ball matchups based entirely on expert commentary from a recent podcast featuring SleepyJ and Dave Essler. The discussion focuses on recent player form, course history, and betting odds—providing high-value insight for anyone seeking an edge.
? Opening Picks: Ben Griffin in Three-Ball Matchup
(0:00 - 1:56) — SleepyJ sets the tone with his top pick in a three-ball tournament bet:
Pick: Ben Griffin (+180) over Sam Burns & JT Poston
SleepyJ argues that Ben Griffin is the most in-form golfer among the trio. He played last week in Texas and finished 18th—a key point given the local climate and course adaptation. While he’s only played the Valero Texas Open twice (cut once, finished 39th), his recent performance outweighs history.
Sam Burns: A Reputational Favorite, Not a Form Favorite
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Two missed cuts in his last two events.
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Previous result: 48th.
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Struggles include iron accuracy and scrambling.
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At this venue: Three starts, two missed cuts.
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Burns is deemed a favorite only because of name recognition.
? JT Poston: Consistent but Capped
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Last seven events: No missed cuts, but finishes range between the 30s and 50s.
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Last top-20 was back at the Phoenix Open.
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At this venue: Four starts, never inside the top 25.
SleepyJ leans on Griffin’s current edge and readiness after recent play in Texas to back him at +180 odds on DraftKings.
Expert Insight: Bud Colley vs. Matt Fitzpatrick
(1:57 - 2:51) — Dave Essler adds his own matchup to the board, presenting a concise but sharp case.
Pick: Bud Colley (-120) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Dave positions Bud Colley as the more stable and dependable choice, citing not only Fitzpatrick’s poor form but also internal turbulence.
Matt Fitzpatrick: Slipping Since the Peak
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Hasn’t been the same since his rise to elite status ~1.5 to 2 years ago.
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Recently lost his caddie, injecting unpredictability into his setup.
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Essler notes that while change can be good, Fitzpatrick's trajectory suggests otherwise.
“I’m going to bank on the fact that Matt Fitzpatrick continues his downward spiral…”
Bud Colley, by contrast, is the favorite in sportsbooks and backed for his consistency.
Summary of Player Performance & Betting Angles
| Player |
Recent Form |
Venue History |
Key Concerns |
Pick Status |
| Ben Griffin |
18th place last week in Texas |
Cut, 39th at this venue |
None cited |
Picked |
| Sam Burns |
2 missed cuts, prior 48th |
2 missed cuts in 3 tries |
Accuracy, scrambling issues |
Faded |
| JT Poston |
Steady, but low placements |
No top 25 in 4 visits |
Lacks upside |
Faded |
| Matt Fitzpatrick |
Declining form, caddie left |
Not discussed |
Mental, technical instability |
Faded |
| Bud Colley |
Stable, consistent |
Not discussed |
None cited |
Picked |
Key Takeaways for Bettors
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Form over fame: Recent play matters more than name brand.
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Course history has limits: It helps, but can be overridden by current trends.
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Avoid volatility: Burns and Fitzpatrick are both faded due to inconsistency.
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Local adaptation matters: Griffin’s play in Texas is seen as a key edge.
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Intangibles count: Fitzpatrick’s caddie loss may signal deeper issues.
Betting Picks Recap
Final Thoughts
These picks are crafted with sharp attention to player dynamics, recent stats, and nuanced psychological elements like chemistry and form shifts. Whether you're placing bets or just tracking the Valero Texas Open with keen interest, these insights offer a solid analytical foundation for predicting outcomes with confidence.