
UFC 311 Predictions: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan – In-Depth Fight Analysis
Introduction
UFC 311 delivers an electrifying card with marquee fights including Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch for the lightweight title and a co-main event featuring Murab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov. This article dissects the key matchups, analyzing styles, fighter trajectories, and betting angles to provide a complete guide to the event.
Co-Main Event: Murab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Fighter Comparison
Murab Dvalishvili enters this fight as an underdog despite an impressive 11-fight win streak and victories over elite opponents like Sean O’Malley and Petr Yan. Known for his unmatched cardio and relentless pressure, Murab thrives on pushing the pace and outworking his opponents.
Umar Nurmagomedov, however, brings a balanced skill set combining elite grappling with sharp striking, showcased in his dominant win over Corey Sandhagen where he secured multiple takedowns and controlled the fight both on the feet and the mat.
Betting and Stylistic Analysis
While Murab’s relentless style has carried him through high-level competition, analysts argue his success depends on controlling the pace. Against a superior grappler like Umar, this could be a challenge. The unusual betting line (-330 for Umar) reflects a mismatch in grappling dynamics rather than career accolades.
Prediction
The consensus leans heavily toward Umar Nurmagomedov, who is expected to dominate both standing and on the ground. His ability to dictate the fight’s tempo and position gives him a clear edge.
Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
The First Fight
The 2019 encounter between Makhachev and Tsarukyan was a closely contested grappling battle. Makhachev emerged victorious, but both fighters were early in their careers.
Evolution Since
Islam Makhachev has grown into a dominant champion with four title defenses. His recent victories include high-profile matchups against Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier, demonstrating his transformation into a complete fighter. His improved striking and defensive capabilities now complement his elite grappling, making him one of the most versatile fighters in the UFC.
Arman Tsarukyan has also developed significantly, suffering just one loss since his first bout with Makhachev. However, concerns about his cardio in deep fights and reliance on grappling under pressure remain.
Prediction
Makhachev’s superior conditioning, defensive skills, and ability to adapt make him the favorite. Analysts predict a late-round finish or submission, with Tsarukyan struggling to sustain the pace in a five-round bout.
Best Bet: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Fighter Trajectories
Beneil Dariush enters the fight on a decline, with back-to-back losses against Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. At 34, questions about his motivation and durability have emerged, especially after public statements hinting at retirement.
Renato Moicano rides a four-fight win streak, including standout performances against Jalen Turner and Benoit St. Denis. His resurgence has drawn comparisons to Charles Oliveira’s late-career revival, and his confidence and well-rounded skill set position him as a surging contender.
Betting and Stylistic Analysis
Moicano’s striking improvements, resilience under pressure, and mental edge make him a strong favorite. Conversely, Dariush’s decline in both performance and enthusiasm for the sport makes him a less reliable pick.
Prediction
Renato Moicano is expected to secure a decisive victory, with analysts viewing him as a valuable bet at -162 odds.
Highlights and Takeaways
- Murab’s Relentlessness Tested: While Murab’s stamina is legendary, Umar’s grappling could expose his vulnerabilities.
- Makhachev’s Growth: Islam’s evolution from a grappling-heavy fighter to a complete champion puts him on par with UFC legends.
- Moicano’s Resurgence: Moicano’s four-fight streak positions him as a rising star in the lightweight division.
- Betting Line Disparities: Analysts discuss the surprising odds for fights, emphasizing stylistic nuances over resumes.
- Mental and Physical Edge: Fighters like Dariush and Murab face scrutiny over their mindset entering UFC 311.
- Division Domination: Islam Makhachev has the potential to “lap” the division and cement his legacy.
Conclusion
UFC 311 offers fans and bettors an exciting slate of fights with intriguing matchups and narratives. The co-main and main events spotlight stylistic clashes that could redefine divisional rankings. Analysts overwhelmingly favor Umar Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev, and Renato Moicano based on their skill sets, recent performances, and mental edge.