The NBA Playoffs continue on Tuesday night and I will have a free pick in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors, which will take place at Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The game has a start time of 10:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TNT. Current Vegas betting odds have Golden State listed as 10.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 194.5.
Analysis: The Memphis Grizzlies really limped into the playoffs, but they got lucky with their first round draw as they were facing an equally beat up Portland squad. Memphis may not be so lucky in this round as they are taking on top seep Golden State and have started out with a 15 point loss in game 1. Memphis has been a solid road team this year where they have gone 25-19, but they have now lost both games played at Golden State this year. Memphis is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games, but just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The Grizzlies have scored just 97.2 ppg on 45.8% shooting overall and 33.7% from long range on the road this year. Defensively they have been solid away from home as they have allowed just 97.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting overall and 37.0% shooting from long range.
The Warriors have really been the best team in the NBA and they followed up their 4-0 sweep vs the Pelicans with a 101-86 win of Memphis in game 1 on Sunday. The Warriors have now gone 42-2 at home for the year so far. Golden State has gone 19-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Warriors have scored 112.5 ppg on 49.4% shooting overall and 41.2% from long range at home this year. Defensively they have been decent at home as they have allowed just 98.2 ppg on 43.2% shooting overall and 34.0% shooting from long range.
Pick: I had the Warriors in game 1 and I will come back with them here as well. Memphis just doesn't have the horses right now to hang with this team on their home floor, especially without Conley, who really makes their offense go. The Grizzlies put up just 86 points in game one and have averaged just 97.2 ppg away from home, while the Warriors have scored 112.5 ppg on their home floor. That is a huge discrepancy and again it will cost the Grizzlies. They lost game 1 by 15 points and they should lose this one by at least 15 as well.
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