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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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Tuesday College Football Arkansas State Red Wolves vs UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Free Picks

Tuesday night college football and we will see the Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the UL Lafayette at Cajun Field in Lafayette, Louisiana. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas odds have the Red Wolves listed as 3.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 57.5.  

Analysis:  The Arkansas State Red Wolves come in at 4-2 on the year, which includes a 1-2 mark on the road. The Red Wolves are also 2-0 in the Sun Belt Conference and in 2nd place behind Georgia Southern, who is 4-0 in the conference. Arkansas State is just 1-5 ATS the last 6 in this series, but they are also 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games. Arkansas State is a rather decent offensive squad that ranks 39th in total yards, 60th in passing, 39th in rushing and they have put up 29.5 ppg which is 69th in the Nation. On the defensive side of the ball they have been very solid, ranking 46th in yards allowed, 83rd vs the pass, 22nd vs the run and they have allowed 20.5 ppg, which is 26th in the Nation.

The UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns come in at 3-3 on the year, which includes a 2-1 mark at home and they are also 2-0 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Ragin Cajuns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs a team with a winning record, but are also just 1-6 ATS at home in their last 7 games vs a team with a winning road record. The offense for the Ragin Cajuns is rather average as they come in ranked 67th in total yards, 84th in passing, 43rd in passing, while scoring 26.2 ppg, which is 88th in the Nation. Defensively this team has had some issues this year, as they come in ranked 87th in yards allowed, 97th vs the pass, 78th vs the run and 90th in points allowed (30.8 ppg).

Pick: I like the Under in this game. In the last 5 meetings between these team only once did they put up more than 55 points in a game. Last year they combined for just 30 points and while I do not see that low a point total in this one, I do expect no more than 50 points. The Red Wolves are a very solid defensive team, as they have allowed just 20.5 ppg overall and have allowed no more than 14 in each of their last 3 games. On Offense the Red Wolves are a run first team that has averaged 48 rushes per game, so that will help the clock keep moving. UL Lafayette also runs the ball allot as well with 37.5 rushes per game. The UL Lafayette defense is pretty week, but just once in their last 5 games have Arkansas State put up more than 28 points in a game. This one will feature allot of running the ball and some solid defense, especially from the Arkansas State standpoint. The Under is 4-1 in U Lafayette's last 5 Tuesday games, while the Under is 29-9-1 in Arkansas State's last 39 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 games after scoring 40+ points. This game should be played right around 50 at best. 

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MovieHandicapping Tips: Derivative Betting
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