Expert Predictions for the Truist Championship: Picks from Dave Essler & Sleepy J

The Truist Championship is poised to be one of the most talked-about events in the PGA calendar, and expert handicappers Dave Essler and Sleepy J from Pregame.com have weighed in with their picks. In this deep dive, we analyze their reasoning, player statistics, and course-fit predictions—based entirely on the transcript of their conversation.

Course Dynamics & Strategic Implications

The hosts emphasize key features of the course:

• Short layout: Neutralizes the need for long drives.

• Heavy rough: Demands strong iron play and precision.

• Bentgrass greens: Favors golfers skilled on this surface.

Both Essler and Sleepy J tailor their picks to these course characteristics, emphasizing control, recent form, and ball-striking over power.

 Sleepy J’s Top Picks

?‍?? Colin Morikawa – 12:1 Odds

Sleepy J highlights Morikawa’s elite iron game as a perfect match for the rough-heavy course:

• Quote: “...very good, that can go ahead and keep everything where he needs to keep it, you know, with his irons.”

• Reasoning: Tough rough will challenge less accurate players; Morikawa’s iron control is a competitive edge.

• Strategy: Value play among favorites, focused on ball control rather than distance.

?‍?? Andrew Novak – 55:1 Odds

A true sleeper, Novak is Sleepy J’s long-shot value pick:

• Recent finishes: 3rd, 2nd, 1st

• Strengths: Bentgrass putting, sand saves

• Quote: “He’s been dialed in... I think the odds are wrong... that certainly makes me a buyer for Novak.”

• Why It Works: Short course negates Novak’s driving weakness, making his all-around short game and recent form crucial.

 Dave Essler’s Predictions

?‍?? Patrick Cantlay – 20:1 Odds

Dave chooses Cantlay based on both metrics and tournament pedigree:

• Ball striking: Ranked 10th on tour

• Experience: Regularly performs in majors and signature events

• Quote: “He’s a guy... that’s been showing up in signature events and majors...”

• Context: PGA structural shifts (influenced by LIV Golf) reward players like Cantlay with consistent appearances in big-money tournaments.

?‍?? Russell Henley – 30:1 Odds

Henley is Essler’s best value based on skillset and course compatibility:

• Recent finishes:

  • 1st at Arnold Palmer

  • 8th at Harbour Town

  • 5th at AT&T Pebble Beach

• Quote: “He’s got Sheffler-like stats this season everywhere but off the tee.”

• Fit: Course doesn’t demand distance; Henley’s precision and form stand out.

 Comparative Player Snapshot

 Why No Rory?

Both experts avoid Rory McIlroy despite his stature:

• Reason: Odds likely don’t reflect value

• Quote: “No surprises, but I’m not taking Rory.” (Sleepy J)

• Strategy: Prioritize fit, form, and expected value over name recognition.

 Key Takeaways

• Control beats power: All picks are based on iron accuracy and ball striking.

• Surface matters: Players like Novak who excel on Bentgrass get a boost.

• Experience counts: With $4M on the line, pressure-tested players are favored.

• PGA policy favors elite: Signature events increasingly lock out next-tier players unless they win.

? Final Thoughts

Essler and Sleepy J deliver data-backed picks that blend statistical performance with strategic foresight. Whether you're wagering, setting up your DFS lineups, or just following the action, their insights are laser-focused on course compatibility and recent form. If you’re looking for value in your Truist Championship bets, their analysis offers a roadmap to smart selections.