First Round Leader Predictions: Truist Championship Insights from Dave Essler & Sleepy J

Golf analysts Dave Essler and Sleepy J from Pregame.com recently shared their top picks for First Round Leader (FRL) at the Truist Championship. Their selections are grounded in recent performance data, player statistics, and strategic considerations such as course length and tee time structure. This article summarizes their insights in detail, offering a focused look at each pick and the rationale behind it.

? Introduction: What’s at Stake?

First Round Leader bets offer high-upside value for golf bettors, rewarding players who post the lowest score after Round 1. Essler and Sleepy J break down four candidates they believe are primed for fast starts based on current form, course fit, and early-round history.

 Keith Mitchell (45 to 1): Urgency + Form

Dave Essler’s first pick is Keith Mitchell, noting his solid recent showings:

• 12th at Valero

• 2nd in Punta Cana (split field)

Essler emphasizes Mitchell’s FedEx Cup ranking around 70th, a key detail since only the top 70 now qualify for the playoffs. The reduced cutoff means every strong start counts. While he doesn’t expect Mitchell to win the tournament outright, Essler believes he has the tools to go low in Round 1—if his putter cooperates. Dry course conditions could offer extra roll off the tee, further benefiting his game.

? Tommy Fleetwood (30 to 1): Stats Meet Course Fit

Though still searching for his first PGA Tour win, Tommy Fleetwood remains a FRL threat. Essler notes:

• 12th in Shots Gained Total

• 9th in Approach

• Above-average putter

Fleetwood’s biggest drawback—limited distance off the tee—matters less this week since the course is just over 7,100 yards (compared to 7,600 last week). Essler sees Thursday as the day Fleetwood avoids his usual one bad round and capitalizes on an ideal layout.

Denny McCarthy (45 to 1): Thursday Specialist

Essler’s third FRL selection is Denny McCarthy, citing a remarkable Thursday trend:

• Five rounds of 68 or better in 2024 on Thursdays

McCarthy’s game hinges on his putting, which often catches fire early in events. Essler warns it’ll likely take an even lower score this week, but sees this course as a strong fit for McCarthy’s style. If his flat stick gets hot, he could easily emerge as the leader.

 Justin Thomas (25 to 1): Momentum Play

Sleepy J’s lone pick is Justin Thomas, who he says is in “a great place” mentally and physically. He points to Thomas’ dominant first round at the RBC, where he “slaughtered the field.” According to Sleepy:

• Thomas “checks all the boxes”

• Avoiding sand and rough is key

• Tee times help even the field

Sleepy makes a critical point: tee times start late, between 11:09 AM and 1:30 PM, meaning there’s no early-morning advantage this week. This scheduling factor removes a common variable and supports confidence in JT, who isn’t dependent on drawing a soft tee slot.

? FRL Picks at a Glance

Expert Notes on Tournament Structure

Both analysts agree that traditional FRL strategies based on early tee times don’t apply here due to compressed tee schedules. This levels the playing field, giving an even chance to all Day 1 participants.

 Final Word

Whether you prefer value plays like McCarthy or elite firepower like Thomas, the predictions from Essler and Sleepy J offer data-driven betting insights. With tournament structures evolving and field strengths tightening, betting sharpness starts with understanding the "why" behind each pick.