Extended Summary: Travelers Championship Picks and Predictions

This in-depth extended summary analyzes the full transcript of Will Doctor’s golf podcast, focused on the 2025 Travelers Championship and the aftermath of the U.S. Open. This extended version covers full player analyses, tournament statistics, predictions, matchup bets, and fantasy picks, all timestamped and sourced exclusively from the transcript.

? U.S. Open Recap: The Chaos at Oakmont

 JJ Spahn’s Breakthrough Win (0:37–6:00)

• Victory: JJ Spahn won the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont after entering the final round one shot back. His bogey-free 66 in Round 1 was his best ever in a major. He fought back from five-over through six in the final round to win by two shots over Robert McIntyre.

• Personal Story: Spahn was on the verge of losing his PGA card a year ago. He credits his playoff loss to Rory at Sawgrass for his composure and cited waking at 3 a.m. to care for his sick daughter as a humanizing moment before his Sunday charge.

• Stats: Started bogey-free 66, followed with +2 (72), -1 (69), and closed with resilience in difficult weather. Beat 71 elite players and surged late in soaking conditions.

 Sunday Collapses: Burns, Scott, Hatton (6:00–12:00)

• Sam Burns: Entered Sunday as the 54-hole leader, but shot +5 on back nine. Asked for relief on 15th hole due to casual water; denied. Showed maturity post-round, unlike peers (Rory, Lowry, Morikawa).

• Stats & Reputation: Burns has a 1-for-8 record converting 36-hole leads and 1-for-5 for 54-hole leads. Despite being world No. 19 and one of the best putters, his iron play remains shaky.

• Adam Scott: Another disappointment; couldn't capitalize on position, ending outside contention.

• Tyrell Hatton: Bogeyed 17 and 18 after a tough lie, finished T-4, giving fans drama and emotion without clown antics. Cam Young (T-4 at 150-1) was strong, finishing 3rd in putting but undone by bogeys early in Round 4.

 International Highlights

• Carlos Ortiz: LIV golfer finished top 4, securing spots in next year’s Masters and U.S. Open. Made ~$1M from the finish. Double on 15 cost him a bigger prize.

• Victor Hovland: Top Nordic finisher. Let down by putting (-1 stroke Sunday). Maintains perfect top-10 record across all majors at age 27.

• Ludvig Åberg: Missed cut due to poor chipping and driving accuracy. Now two missed major cuts in a row. Ranked below average in chipping across last 25 events.

 Betting Card Review (12:00–21:00)

• Card Result: Down 2 units on the week, now -70.7 units YTD.

• Outrights:

  • Scheffler (T-7): Driving issues, but irons elite.

  • Koepka (T-12): Strong Round 1, imploded Friday.

  • DeChambeau (MC): Horrible accuracy; lost touch with putter.

  • Keegan Bradley (T-33): Chipped well but iron play collapsed.

  • Cam Young (T-4): Best performance on transcript betting card; cashed Top 20 (+320).

• Matchups & Props:

  • Rahm > Rory: Cashed.

  • Hideki Top Japanese: Cashed.

  • Åberg Top Nordic: Missed cut.

 Travelers Championship Preview (21:00–47:00)

 Critique on Field & Format

• Will criticizes the no-cut 72-man field, urging PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolop to expand signature events back to 120 with cuts and implement innovations like shot clocks. He believes the current setup favors elite names while disenfranchising middle-tier pros and fans.

? Player Breakdowns: Key Contenders

• Scottie Scheffler (+325): Defending champion; elite approach (7th from 50–125 yards). Positive putting recently. No statistical red flags. Six wins in the past year.

• Rory McIlroy (+1400): Driving improved (first solid week since Pebble Beach), but short iron stats weak—outside top 50 inside 100 yards. Lost strokes on approach 3 straight events. Playing third week in a row.

• Collin Morikawa (+1800): Amazing approach stats (+3 strokes at Oakmont). Lost -2.5 strokes putting. Historically good putter on similar greens. Tournament best finish = T-13.

• Xander Schauffele (+2000): T-12 at U.S. Open, nine straight U.S. Open top-14s. Weakness: ranked 128th from 50–125 yards, 173rd inside 100 yards. Avoid due to matchup value and price.

 Matchups & Props

• Akshay Bhatia > Sungjae Im (Even): Bhatia excels from <125 yards. Im declining—4 straight bad approach weeks, including MCs and low finishes. Bhatia T-5 here last year.

• Sepp Straka > Patrick Cantlay (-110): Straka is 1st on Tour inside 125 yards. Cantlay is 138th there, also slumping in accuracy and putting.

• Top 10 Picks:

  • Russell Henley (+275): Elite wedge stats (10th on Tour), good putting turnaround, T-10 at Memorial & U.S. Open. Also backed as outright.

  • Akshay Bhatia (+500): Best-value sleeper, excellent fit for this short course.

 Outrights

• Scottie Scheffler (+325): No weaknesses, past winner, elite wedge play.

• Russell Henley (40-1): Iron guru with returning putter. TPC River Highlands history is strong.

• Bud Cauley (110-1): Great at comp courses (Sawgrass, Colonial), solid approach stats inside 150 yards.

? Fantasy Lineups

DraftKings (50k cap):

1. Sepp Straka ($9.2k)

2. Russell Henley ($8.8k)

3. Robert McIntyre ($8.4k)

4. Jordan Spieth ($8.2k)

5. Akshay Bhatia ($7.4k)

6. Bud Cauley ($6.8k)

PGA.com Fantasy

• Starters: Spieth (Captain), Straka, Henley, Bhatia

• Bench: Cauley, McIntyre

 Final Predictions & Bets

• Winning Score: -20 under par

• Best Bet: Russell Henley Top 10 (+275)

• First Round Pick: Sam Burns Top 10 Round 1 (+333)

• Outright Win Prediction: Scottie Scheffler