Sunday night college football and we will see the Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Toledo Rockets at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama in the Go Daddy Bowl. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have the Rockets listed as 3.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 69.
Analysis: The Toledo Rockets won 4 of their last 5 games down the stretch and finished 7-1 on the year in the MAC. They ended up tying Northern Illinois in the MAC West, but a 3 point road loss to the Huskies kept them out of the MAC Title game. Toledo is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and MAC Bowlers are just 8-18 ATS vs .600 or worse opponents. Toledo has been a solid offensive team this year, ranking 16th in total yards, 56th in passing, 17th in rushing and 31st in scoring (30.8 ppg). The defense for the Rockets has not been that good this year, as they come in ranked 71st in yards allowed, 122nd vs the pass, 18th vs the run and 86th in points allowed (29.3 ppg).
The Arkansas State Red Wolves has a decent year as they went 7-5 overall and 5-3 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Red Wolves did lose 2 of their last 3 games, but still did enough for a bowl invite. Arkansas State is 12-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC, but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Red Wolves have been a solid offensive team this year, ranking 20th in total yards, 51st in passing, 25th in rushing and 22nd in scoring (36.1). The defense for Arkansas State has not been great, ranking 81st in yards allowed, 52nd vs the pass, 93rd vs the run and 77th in points allowed (27.9 ppg).
Pick: I will be taking the Under in this game. Both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for this one and I feel it will really help the defenses more. Both teams run up tempo offense, but both teams also run the ball more than they throw it, especially Toledo of late as they have thrown it 49.7 times per game, while throwing just 21 times per game in their last 3 games. We also note that teams have run the ball 51.3 tines per game vs the Red Wolves in their last 3 games. The Red Wolves have run the ball 45.3 times per game this year and while they do score allot they do run allot of clock with all their running. Both teams will put yup their fair share of points, but still this line is too high for all the running that will go on in this game. No more than 60 here.
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