Thursday baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Cleveland Indians and the Seattle Mariners, which will be played at Safeco Field in Seattle, Washington. First pitch is scheduled for a 10:10 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Betting Odds
Cleveland -126
Seattle +116
Over/ Under: 6.5 U -115
This is game 1 of a 4 game series between these American League foes. Cleveland has been playing well of late as they have won 7 of their last 9 games. Still the tribe is at 21-25 on the year and in 4th place in the AL Central. Seattle comes home off a long road trip, on which they won 5 of their last 6 on. Seattle is now 23-23 on the year and in 3rd place in the AL West. The Indians rank 24th in scoring (3.84 rpg), while on the mound they are 3rd in ERA (3.16). The Mariners rank 22nd in scoring (3.80 rpg), while on the mound they are 13th in ERA (3.79).
Trend for this game include: Cleveland has gone 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter, but just 7-20 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series and 1-7 in Kluber's last 8 starts with 4 days of rest. Seattle has gone 8-1 in their last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower and 9-3 in Paxton's last 12 home starts, but just 1-6 in his last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game
Getting the ball for Cleveland tonight will be Corey Kluber, who is 2-5 with a 3.49 ERA overall, but in his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with an 0.72 ERA. On the road Corey has gone 0-3 with a 4.00 ERA. Corey is 1-0 with an 0.00 ERA in 1 career start vs the Mariners.
Taking the hill for the Angels tonight will be James Paxton, who is 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA overall, while in his last 3 starts he has gone 3-0 with an 0.90 ERA. At home this year James is 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Paxton has yet to face the Indians
Pick: I will go with Cleveland in this one. The Mariners are playing well and Paxton is pitching very well, but this is a bad spot for the Mariners, who are in that first-home-game-off-a-long-road-trip-scenario that many like to play on. Corey Kluber won the Cy Young award last year and is finally starting to pitch the way he did a year ago. Corey has now gone 2-0 with an 0.72 ERA in his last 3 starts. Cleveland has been playing well of late also and I see that continuing here as they get another big outing from Kluber vs a team that is just in a bad spot.
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MLB Pitching Stats: DBF, Difficulty of Batters Faced
Pro handicappers Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik talk about the difference between lazy stats and legit stats, telling you what you need to know about DBF or Difficulty of Batters Faced. This stat is a favorite among sabremetrics followers, who prefer this over stats looking at how a pitcher does versus a team when the team's rotation is constantly changing. Teddy sees the value in DBF, while Fezzik thinks some of the worst DBF performers like AJ Burnett are actually some of the best pitchers in baseball.