Thursday major league baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins, which will be played at Target Field in Minnesota. First pitch is scheduled for an 8:10 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Over/ Under: 8 U -125
This is game 1 of a 4 game series between these American League Central foes. All the talk around Detroit of late has been the Overs streak that they are on as it currently sits at 19 straight. The Tigers have been hot offensively, but cold on the mound, which has led to so many Overs in a row. Overall it has been a disappointing season for the tigers as they are in 3rd place in the AL Central, 7 games behind the Royals. The Twins have been a nice surprise this year as they are 4 games behind the Royals and in second place in the division. The Tigers rank 4th in scoring (4.55 rpg), while on the mound they are 25th in ERA (4.24). Minnesota ranks 14th in scoring (4.20 rpg), while on the mound they are 14th in ERA (3.81).
Trend for this game include: Detroit is 12-0 in Price's last 12 starts vs. American League Central, but just 4-11 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record, while the Twins are 23-8 in their last 31 games as a home underdog, but just 3-10 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Getting the ball for Detroit tonight will be David Price, who is 8-2 with a 2.54 ERA overall for the year, while on the road he has gone 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA. David is 7-3 with a 2.42 ERA in 13 games (12 Starts) in his career vs the Twins, while at Target Field he is 3-3 with a 3.42 ERA.
Toeing the rubber for the Twins tonight will be Mike Pelfrey, who is 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA overall, while at home he has gone 3-1 with a solid 1.80 ERA. Mike is 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Tigers.
Pick: Going with the Under in this game. I feel that this is the game that the streak ends as we have two very solid starters on the mound that can shut down these offenses. Mike Pelfrey has a 9.95 ERA in his last 3 starts, but we note that two of those starts were on the road, in which he struggled mightily, and this game is at home, where he has a 1.80 ERA on the year. Mile hasn't allowed more than 3 ERs at home all yar and in his lone start vs the Tigers at home this year he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings of work. Mike now has an 0.98 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Tigers in this park. David Price has struggled at home some this year, but on the road he has been outstanding, posting a 1.86 ERA in 9 starts and he has a 1.20 ERA in his last 3 starts vs the Twins. Let's also note that Price has allowed more than 2 ERs in just 1 of his last 9 starts.
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