More than 100 million college basketball fans have been watching and betting games through three rounds of the 2011 NCAA basketball tournament. And after each round, more and more brackets are tossed into the waste basket.
Following the trends during a Tournament offers insight into how the average fan is doing with his action, and more importantly, what results the average fan will react to moving forward.
With a field of 64 teams through the championship game there are over 9.2 quintillion possible brackets.
Perfect bracket:
After 48 games, there are over 281 quadrillion possible bracket combinations. That’s 281 followed by twelve zeros. That’s one million times bigger than 281 million.
Using Las Vegas odds to determine the likelihood of each game outcome, the odds against picking all 48 winners so far is over 84 TRILLION to 1 against. A big number for sure, but 3,314 times MORE LIKELY than simply picking randomly.
Straight Up results:
Favorites: 32 winners, 14 losers.
(two games where “pick’em” – meaning no favorite)
Double Digit Favorites are 14 winners, 0 losers.
Favorites by less than double digits are only 18 winners, 14 losers.
Biggest upsets:
Purdue -9.5
Louisville -9.5
Pitt -8
Biggest win: Duke by 42 over Hampton
12 of 48 games decided by three-points or less
24 of 48 games decided by double-digits
Against the Spread results:
Favorites: 21 winners, 23 losers, 2 pushes
(two games where “pick’em” – meaning no favorite)
Most extreme point spread results:
Michigan +1.5 covered by 31.5 points vs. Tennessee
VCU +9.5 covered by 27.5 points vs. Purdue
VCU +5.5 covered by 23.5 points vs. Georgetown
Yes, VCU has covered by a combined 51 points in two games!
3 worse seeds have been favored over better seeds, and the favored worse seed has lost all 3 games.