Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview – Best Bets & Expert Analysis
Super Bowl LIX is set to be one of the biggest betting events of the year, and RJ Bell’s Dream Preview podcast has provided insightful picks, expert analysis, and key statistical breakdowns. In this article, we’ll explore the top bets discussed by RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers, including first-quarter scoring bets and DeAndre Hopkins' receiving yards prop.
Best Bet: Will Both Teams Score in the First Quarter?
Steve Fezzik’s Analysis (0:02 - 0:11)
Steve Fezzik’s top betting pick is "No" on whether both teams will score in the first quarter, with odds at -140. He states that this was discussed during a previous podcast and remains his best free bet for the Super Bowl.
RJ Bell’s Follow-Up (0:11 - 0:16)
RJ Bell asks Fezzik to compare this bet to another option: under 3.5 scores in the first half.
Steve Fezzik’s Response (0:17 - 0:20)
Fezzik prefers the "No first-quarter scoring" bet, but he also finds value in under 3.5 first-half scores.
Betting Insight:
- The first quarter of Super Bowl games is often low-scoring due to conservative play-calling, strong defenses, and early-game nerves.
- Historical Super Bowl trends suggest slow starts, making the "No first-quarter scoring" bet appealing.
Player Prop: DeAndre Hopkins Under 12.5 Receiving Yards
Mackenzie Rivers’ Analysis (0:23 - 0:55)
Mackenzie Rivers recommends betting on DeAndre Hopkins under 12.5 receiving yards, explaining that Hopkins is no longer a key part of the offense.
Key Stats Supporting the Bet:
- Hopkins is averaging just 1.5 targets per game in the playoffs.
- His average yards per target is around five yards, making it difficult for him to surpass 12.5 yards.
- Hollywood Brown has replaced Hopkins as the starter since Week 14.
- Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster’s target share has remained stable, limiting Hopkins' opportunities.
Steve Fezzik’s Take (0:55 - 1:15)
Fezzik agrees with Rivers’ analysis and confirms that he personally placed a bet on the under.
- Juju Smith-Schuster’s return five weeks ago has pushed Hopkins out of the offense.
- Hopkins played just 15 total snaps in the previous game, signaling a severely reduced role.
Mackenzie Rivers’ Follow-Up (1:15 - 1:26)
- Rivers emphasizes that Hopkins’ lack of snaps is more concerning than his lack of targets.
- He notes that unless Andy Reid drastically changes the game plan, Hopkins will not be a major factor.
Betting Insight:
- Hopkins' declining snap count and target volume make the under bet a strong play.
- Hollywood Brown has taken over his role, and the Chiefs' passing attack does not favor Hopkins anymore.
- The only risk to the bet is an unexpected game plan shift from Andy Reid.
Final Betting Picks & Takeaways
Best Bets for Super Bowl LIX
No first-quarter scoring for both teams (-140) – Fezzik’s top pick
Under 3.5 first-half scores – A solid alternative bet
DeAndre Hopkins under 12.5 receiving yards – Supported by strong statistical trends
Key Betting Insights
- First-quarter scoring tends to be low in Super Bowls due to conservative play-calling and nerves.
- Hopkins has been phased out of the offense, averaging just 1.5 targets per game in the playoffs.
- Hollywood Brown has taken over Hopkins' role, making it unlikely for Hopkins to exceed 12.5 receiving yards.
- Juju Smith-Schuster’s return further reduced Hopkins' role, as seen in his limited snap count.
Super Bowl LIX presents excellent betting opportunities based on data-driven trends. Whether betting on early-game scoring limitations or player props, these picks offer value and insight for smart wagers.