Sunday night baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Detroit Tigers and the LA Angels, which will be played at Angels Stadium in Anaheim. First pitch is scheduled for an 8:05 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Betting Odds
Tigers +100
Angels -110
Over/ Under: 7 O -115
This is game 4 of a 4 game series between these American League foes. The Halos have taken the first 3 games of the series and have outscored the Tigers 22-8 in the process. Detroit has now lost 5 of their last 8 games and have fallen to 3rd place in the AL Central. LA comes in at 26-24 and are 5 games behind the Astros in the AL West. The Tigers rank 17th in scoring (4.16 rpg), while on the mound they are 15th in ERA (3.85). The Angels rank 21st in scoring (3.94 rpg), while on the mound they are 8th in ERA (3.64).
Trend for this game include: Detroit is 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 3 games of a series and 6-0 in Price's last 6 starts, but just 5-17 the last 22 games in this series. The Halos have gone 44-14 the last 58 home games in this series and 21-8 in their last 29 home games vs. a left-handed starter, but just 1-10 in their last 11 Sunday games.
Getting the ball for Tigers tonight will be David Price, who is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 10 starts this year, while on the road he has gone 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA. David is 4-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Angels, while on the road in this series he is 3-3 with a 4.28 ERA in 6 starts.
Taking the hill for the Angels tonight will be Matt Shoemaker, who has struggled this year, going 3-4 with a 5.44 ERA overall, while at home he has gone 3-1 with a 4.94 ERA. Matt has faced the Tigers once in his career and went 1-0 with an 0.00 ERA in that start.
Pick: I will go with the Under in this game. Shoemaker has not had a great year, but he usually pitches well at home and I see him having a solid outing vs the Tigers in this nationally televised game. David Price has a 1.82 ERA on the road this year and should be able to hold down this inconsistent LA offense in this one. I look for 5 runs at the most here.
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MLB Pitching Stats: DBF, Difficulty of Batters Faced
Pro handicappers Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik talk about the difference between lazy stats and legit stats, telling you what you need to know about DBF or Difficulty of Batters Faced. This stat is a favorite among sabremetrics followers, who prefer this over stats looking at how a pitcher does versus a team when the team's rotation is constantly changing. Teddy sees the value in DBF, while Fezzik thinks some of the worst DBF performers like AJ Burnett are actually some of the best pitchers in baseball.