St. Mary’s vs. Alabama: March Madness Round 2 Betting Breakdown

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the Round 2 NCAA Tournament matchup between St. Mary’s and Alabama, using exclusive insights from a podcast transcript featuring Griffin Warner and Big East Ben. The focus is on game predictions, betting lines, team strengths, and tactical breakdowns — all directly from the speakers' remarks.

? Opening Thoughts and Arizona Mention

At the beginning of the discussion, Griffin Warner acknowledges that he almost forgot to discuss the Oregon vs. Arizona game. He notes that Oregon is a 3.5-point underdog, which suggests Arizona is favored. Big East Ben quickly and decisively picks Arizona to win, a sentiment that Griffin echoes, stating that the line seems too short — indicating perceived value in betting on Arizona.

Best Bet Pick: Alabama -5.5

Transitioning to their featured matchup, Griffin asks for Ben’s best bet, prompting him to choose Alabama at -5.5 against St. Mary’s. Ben argues strongly in favor of Alabama, believing the Crimson Tide will dominate. He criticizes St. Mary’s for an unconvincing performance against Vanderbilt, a team he dubs “a poor man’s Alabama.” His conclusion: Alabama will "run them out of the gym."

Key Points:

• Alabama is favored by 5.5 points.

• Ben believes Alabama’s speed and firepower will overwhelm St. Mary’s.

• St. Mary’s showed vulnerability against a weaker team (Vanderbilt).

 Opposing View: Bet the Under 149

Griffin Warner counters with a different betting strategy: taking the under on the total points line, set at 149. He predicts that St. Mary’s will control the pace, keeping the game low-scoring. He admits doubts about St. Mary’s ability to both hit the over and stay within the spread.

He also recommends looking at first-half betting as a strategic play, suggesting either splitting the wager or focusing entirely on the first half — where St. Mary’s tempo control is most likely to be effective.

Key Points:

• Griffin favors the under (149 total points).

• Believes St. Mary’s will slow down the game.

• St. Mary’s low scoring ability is seen as a limiting factor.

• Recommends considering first-half under bets.

 Team Strategy Overview

Alabama:

• Spread: -5.5

• Strengths: Up-tempo offense, physical dominance, aggressive scoring.

• Likely Outcome: Could run away with the game if they control the pace.

St. Mary’s:

• Spread: +5.5

• Strengths: Slow, controlled pace; strategic defense.

• Weaknesses: Offensively limited, vulnerable under pressure.

• Best-Case Scenario: Control tempo and keep scoring low.

 Conclusion

Ben and Griffin offer contrasting but insightful perspectives. Ben is all in on Alabama covering the spread and dominating, while Griffin foresees a methodical game where St. Mary’s can keep things tight — but not necessarily win. Both agree Alabama holds the advantage, though how that plays out could determine whether the spread or the total offers more value to bettors.

 Recommended Bets

• Alabama -5.5 (Big East Ben)

• Under 149 Total Points (Griffin Warner)

• First Half Under / Split Bet (Griffin Warner)

 Listen Again

For ongoing updates, insights, and predictions, tune in to RJ Bell’s Dream Preview, available on all major podcast platforms and at Pregame Now.