Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Is the Smart Bet for Western Conference Finals MVP
Introduction
On RJ Bell’s Dream Preview podcast, analyst Mackenzie Rivers shared what he believes is the best value bet in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Rather than focusing on short-term matchups or upcoming games, Rivers zooms in on a futures market that may be flying under the radar: Western Conference Finals MVP. His recommendation? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This article breaks down the conversation in detail, highlighting betting angles, player analysis, and market inefficiencies that make this pick stand out.
Betting Recommendation: SGA for Western Conference Finals MVP
The Pick
Mackenzie Rivers’ Rationale
Rivers asserts that these odds represent a significant discount, considering the Oklahoma City Thunder are currently -220 to win the Western Conference. According to his logic, if the Thunder win the West, SGA is overwhelmingly likely to win MVP honors, due to his centrality to the team’s success.
He pegs SGA’s chances at 95% if the Thunder win—much higher than the implied 62.3% probability at -165 odds.
Player and Team Analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA)
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Team Role: Alpha scorer, primary playmaker, and the player defenses must plan for.
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Comparative Impact: Rivers likens SGA’s influence to that of Steph Curry on the Warriors during their title runs—commanding double teams and forcing defensive shifts.
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MVP Likelihood: Based on how the Thunder are constructed, there’s no other player positioned to siphon MVP votes if they win the conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Team Odds to Win the West: Approximately -220
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Defensive Identity: A collective unit with multiple role players contributing, but no second-tier star with MVP upside.
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Key Insight: While the team is balanced, SGA is the only player with the offensive gravity needed to dominate a playoff series.
Odds Breakdown and Market Comparison
Rivers makes a sharp observation: Justin Clifford, another potential MVP candidate, is priced at +155, which closely mirrors the Thunder’s odds to win the West. This suggests the market assigns him a nearly 1:1 ratio for team win to MVP outcome.
But with SGA priced at -165—despite being the Thunder’s clear-cut engine—the market may be underestimating his likelihood of taking home the award.
This discrepancy between team win odds and player MVP odds is the opportunity Rivers is targeting.
Practical Betting Tip: Use DraftKings
Rivers explicitly mentions that the best line—SGA at -165—is available on DraftKings, ensuring listeners and readers can find this value bet in the right place.
Strategic Framework for Futures Bets
Conditional Probability Strategy
Rivers doesn’t claim the Thunder will win. Instead, he structures his recommendation as a conditional bet: If the Thunder win, who wins MVP? For him, the answer is clear—SGA, with a 95% probability.
Market Inefficiency Play
This bet reflects a mismatch between betting lines and likely outcomes. In sharp betting circles, this kind of inefficiency is where value is found—not necessarily in predicting outcomes better than others, but in betting smarter against flawed pricing.
Final Thoughts
Mackenzie Rivers’ pick of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win Western Conference Finals MVP is a classic example of futures betting with mathematical edge and player insight. While many are distracted by daily lines and prop bets, this recommendation highlights the value of stepping back and seeing the bigger picture.
With a central player, clear team dependency, and misaligned odds, SGA at -165 might just be the sharpest play on the NBA betting board.