The Sentry Tournament of Champions 2025: Preview, Picks, and Predictions
The 2025 PGA Tour season kicks off with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii. This event marks the start of a 36-event regular season and is the first of eight signature tournaments. Hosted on a breathtaking course with dramatic elevation changes and coastal scenery, this opening event sets the tone for an exciting year of professional golf. Will Doctor, host of the Pregame podcast, provides an in-depth analysis of the players, odds, and strategies to watch for in this year’s Sentry.
??? Tournament Overview
The Sentry Tournament of Champions features a smaller, elite field of 60 players, including 37 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. The event highlights both familiar and rising stars while offering a glimpse into what lies ahead for the PGA Tour in 2025. This tournament is played on the iconic Plantation Course, known for its challenging design that includes scenic par fives, short par fours, and wide elevation changes.
Doctor predicts low scores, with the winning total expected to reach 24-under-par, thanks to favorable conditions and Kapalua’s scoring-friendly layout.
Key Players and Predictions
Justin Thomas (11-1 Odds)
Thomas enters the Sentry as a two-time Kapalua champion. Despite recent putting struggles, his elite ball-striking and strong form make him a standout pick. Doctor recommends Thomas for an outright win and a top-10 finish (+110), along with a bet to lead after the first round (16-1).
Collin Morikawa (12-1 Odds)
Morikawa boasts excellent history at Kapalua, never finishing worse than 7th in seven appearances. Though inconsistent recently, his ball-striking capabilities on this course make him a favorite in matchups, particularly against Hideki Matsuyama (-139).
Xander Schauffele (7-1 Odds)
A past winner at Kapalua, Schauffele excels in ball-striking but struggles on the greens here, leading Doctor to avoid betting on him this week despite his strengths.
Akshay Bhatia (+110, Top 20)
Bhatia has become a rising star with back-to-back top-5 finishes in late 2024. His proficiency on coastal courses and strong form make him a solid top-20 pick.
Other Notable Players
- Sung Jae Im (18-1): Strong track record at Kapalua, but odds and matchups aren’t favorable.
- Patrick Cantlay (18-1): Reliable but struggles in low-scoring contests requiring elite putting.
- Ludvig Åberg (18-1): Talented but hindered by putting issues, making him a risky choice.
Betting Strategies
Doctor provides a range of betting recommendations to maximize value:
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Outright Picks:
- Justin Thomas (11-1)
- Max Graesserman (45-1): A sleeper pick with consistent fall performances and the ability to excel on low-scoring courses.
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Matchups:
- Collin Morikawa over Hideki Matsuyama (-139): Morikawa’s consistency at Kapalua gives him the edge.
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Top Finishes:
- Akshay Bhatia to finish top 20 (+110): Leveraging his recent form and affinity for coastal courses.
- Jonathan Vegas to finish top 20 (3-1): A strong driver who thrives at Kapalua’s layout.
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Best Bet:
Max Graesserman to finish top 10 (+350), combining recent form and excellent putting under pressure.
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First-Round Leader:
Justin Thomas (16-1): Known for fast starts and strong opening rounds.
??? Fantasy Lineups
Doctor offers lineup recommendations for DraftKings and PGA Tour Fantasy:
? Course and Conditions
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most scenic and challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Featuring long par fives and short par fours, it provides opportunities for low scores while testing players' skill sets. With ideal weather conditions predicted—highs of 77°F and manageable winds—scoring is expected to be favorable. Doctor anticipates a winning score of -24.
Conclusion
Will Doctor’s analysis of the 2025 Sentry Tournament of Champions combines sharp predictions with practical betting strategies. Justin Thomas is highlighted as a top contender for both an outright win and strong finishes in specific markets. Sleeper picks like Max Graesserman and Akshay Bhatia offer exciting opportunities for value. As the PGA Tour begins another thrilling season, this opening event at Kapalua provides a glimpse into the form and potential of the top players in the world.