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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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    Yesterday - 8:38 AM

College Basketball Free Pick, Odds Tennessee Volunteers vs Arkansas Razorbacks

Tuesday night college basketball and we will see the Tennessee Volunteers travel to Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Current Vegas betting odds have Arkansas listed as 10 point favorites, while the total is set at 140.5.  

Analysis:  The Tennessee Volunteers come in having won 8 of their last 10 games, but one of those losses were at home to Texas A&M on Saturday. It really was a bad loss for his team. Still they are 12-8 overall, which includes a 4-2 record in SEC play and a 3-1 mark in true road games. The Vols have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. the SEC, but just 5-11-3 ATS in their last 19 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Tennessee has not been a good offensive team this year, ranking 262nd in scoring (64.2 ppg), 153rd in shooting (43.9%), 110th in 3 point shooting (35.9%) and 223rd in FT shooting (67.6%). Defensively the Vols have been solid as they come in ranked 80th in points allowed (62.3 ppg), 108th in defensive FG% (41.0%) and 283rd in 3 point defense (36.5%).   

The Arkansas Razorbacks come in having won their last 2 games, after losing their previous 2 games. Those two wins have been very tight as they beat Alabama 93-91 in OT and then on Saturday the beat Missouri 61-60 on the road. The wins now have Arkansas at 15-4 overall, including 4-2 in the SEC and 12-1 at home. The Hogs have gone 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, but the favorite is 4-11 ATS the last 5 in the series. The Razorbacks have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 7th in scoring (82.3 ppg), 71st in shooting (45.9%), 56th in 3 point shooting (37.4%) and 60th in FT shooting (72.4%). Defensively the Razorbacks have not been good at all, ranking 305th in points allowed (72.0 ppg), 263rd in defensive FG% (44.5%) and 279th in 3 point defense (36.3%).   

Pick: The Razorbacks at home where they will push tempo all game and I can see Tennessee getting caught up in that here, making this an Over play. These teams played a game in Tennessee back on January 13th and that game put up 143 points. Now they are playing in Arkansas, where their home games have averaged 158.4 ppg on the year so far. They have scored at least 78 points in each SEC home game (Regulation) and have scored 87.3 at home overall for the year.  Tennessee is not a good offensive team, but they will be facing an Arkansas team that has allowed 71.1 ppg at home and 75.5 ppg (Regulation) in their 6 SEC games so far this year. I can see Tennessee scoring in the high 60s here, while the hogs should score in the high 70s. 78-69 sounds about right here. 


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