MLB Betting Picks and Analysis – Saturday, April 12, 2025
In this Friday-night edition of RJ Bell’s MLB Dream Preview Podcast, hosts Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner dive deep into the full Saturday MLB schedule with sharp betting insights, statistical breakdowns, and their favorite plays. With 15 games on tap, the duo offers expert analysis from a bettor’s perspective, backed by line movement trends, weather considerations, and pitcher matchups. This article breaks down all the essential insights shared during the episode.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
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Pitchers: Jackson Jobe (DET) vs. Chris Paddack (MIN)
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Line: Twins -115 | Tigers +102 | Total: 8.5
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Best Bets: Tigers ML, First 5 Over
Chris Paddack has been highly vulnerable, allowing 9 and 3 earned runs in his two starts. Tigers prospect Jackson Jobe has control issues, issuing 7 walks in 9 innings. Both hosts lean Tigers ML and first five innings over 4.5 due to pitching volatility.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
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Pitchers: Christopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. Miles Mikolas (STL)
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Line: Phillies -150 | Cardinals +136 | Total: 8
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Best Bets: Phillies -1.5 (+115)
Munaf’s best bet. Sanchez has increased velocity and bounce-back potential after facing the Dodgers. Mikolas is 0–4 vs. Phillies since 2023, with all losses by multiple runs.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees
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Pitchers: Jordan Hicks (SF) vs. Will Warren (NYY)
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Line: Yankees -130 | Giants +118 | Total: 8
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Best Bets: Giants ML, Under
Jordan Hicks has been solid early. Cold weather (41°F) and wind blowing in limits home run potential. Yankees starter Warren has struggled and may be demoted after this outing.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
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Pitchers: Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. Cade Povich (BAL)
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Line: Orioles -121 | Blue Jays +110 | Total: 8.5
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Best Bets: Over 8.5, Blue Jays ML
Povich has poor control and is 0–2 with an 8.38 ERA vs. Toronto. Berrios rebounded in his last two outings and could capitalize again.
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
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Pitchers: Trevor Williams (WSH) vs. Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
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Line: Marlins -137 | Nationals +124 | Total: 7.5
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Best Bets: Nationals ML, Over 7.5
Sandy Alcantara hasn’t returned to elite form post-surgery. Nationals offer value as road dogs. Both starters have allowed 2–3 ER per start.
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
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Pitchers: Richard Fitz (BOS) vs. Martin Perez (CWS)
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Line: Red Sox -157 | White Sox +142 | Total: 7.5
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Best Bets: White Sox ML, Under
Perez has been elite (1 ER in 12 IP). Cold weather (~42°F) supports the under. White Sox provide home dog value.
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
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Pitchers: AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs. Drew Rasmussen (TB)
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Line: Rays -140 | Braves +127 | Total: 8.5
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Best Bets: Braves ML, Under 8.5
Rasmussen is strong early, but price feels inflated. Smith-Shawver’s wildness is a concern, but Braves are due for a road win.
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
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Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen (KC) vs. Luis Ortiz (CLE)
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Line: Guardians -125 | Royals +113 | Total: 7.5
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Best Bet (Griffin): Guardians ML
Ortiz is a fade with poor K rates. Guardians are 57–33 at home since 2023. Cold weather and pitching favors under as well.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
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Pitchers: Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. Ryan Gusto (HOU)
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Line: Astros -140 | Angels +127 | Total: 8.5
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Best Bets: Over 8.5, Slight lean Astros
Gusto is not built for starting, and Anderson has struggled vs. Houston. Astros’ offense woke up with 14 runs on Friday.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Pitchers: Chad Patrick (MIL) vs. Corbin Burns (ARI)
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Line: D-backs -170 | Brewers +154 | Total: 8.5
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Best Bets: First 5 Over 4.5
Burns hasn’t looked like himself (6 ER, 7 BB in 2 starts). Patrick has been quietly good. Too risky to lay -170 on Burns right now.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Both pitchers are inexperienced. Padres’ lineup should challenge Dollander. Hart struggled vs. Cubs (5 ER, 0.2 IP).
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Pitchers: Ben Brown (CHC) vs. Roki Sasaki (LAD)
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Line: Dodgers -180 | Cubs +150 | Total: 8.5–9
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Best Bets: Dodgers TT Over 4.5, Full Game Over
Brown wild (9 BB in 11.2 IP). Sasaki’s command is shaky. Cubs and Dodgers both patient, powerful lineups.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
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Pitchers: Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs. Bryan Woo (SEA)
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Line: Mariners -142 | Rangers +129 | Total: 7
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Best Bets: Mariners ML, Under 7
Woo has dominated at T-Mobile Park (10–1 in 11 starts). Rangers are volatile but Seattle’s pitching and park favor the home side.
Best Bets Recap
Final Thoughts
Munaf and Griffin emphasized that April betting requires extra caution, especially with unpredictable spring weather. Many teams are still stabilizing rotations, and bullpens are being tested. Munaf is off to a 3–1 start with best bets, while Griffin seeks his first win.
Listeners are encouraged to join the $1,000 Beat Andre Gomes MLB Contest and use promo code STRIKE50 for $50 off the MLB subscription package at pregame.com.