Saturday major league baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees, which will be played at the Yankees Stadium in the Bronx. First pitch is scheduled for a 1:05 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on Fox Sports 1.

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay               +154
New York                  -164

Over/ Under: 7.5 O -115

This is game 2 of a 3 game series between these American League East foes. Tampa Bay had a 3-0 lead last night heading to the bottom of the 8th inning before the Yanks tied it up and then won 7-5 in 12 innings. Now thanks to the loss by the Orioles the Yanks are in first place by 1 game over those Orioles. The Rays are really starting to slide as they have won just 1 of their last 9 games and are now 2 games behind the Yanks in the AL East. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in scoring (3.61 rpg), while on the mound they are 6th in ERA (3.44). The Yankees rank 2nd in scoring (4.69 rpg), while on the mound they are 21st in ERA (4.03).

Trend for this game include:  The Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, but just 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in New York. The Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record, but just 2-5 in Pinedas last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.

Getting the ball for Tampa Bay today will be Nathan Karns, who is 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA n 16 starts this year, while on the road he has gone 2-0 with a 1.91 ERA in 6 starts.  Nate is 1-0 with a 3.07 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Yanks. 

Toeing the rubber for the Yankees today will be Michael Pineda, who is 8-5 with a 4.08 ERA in 15 starts this year, while at home he has gone 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 8 starts. Michael is 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 6 career starts vs the Rays. 

Pick: I have to side with the Yanks here, even this is a bit pricey. The Rays are in total freefall right now as they have won just 1 of their last 9 games and they haven't fared well vs righties of late, going just 1-10 in their last 11 vs them. Nate Karns has pitched well of late and on the road this year, but this is a Yankee offense that has averaged a whopping 8.1 rpg in their last 8 home games. The Rays have averaged just 2.7 rpg in their last 10 games and have put up 3.68 rpg on the road, which is 2.13 rpg less than the Yanks have averaged at home overall (5.81). Against righties its even more disparaging as the Rays have scored just 3.43 rp/9 off of them on the road, while the Yanks have put up 6.43 rp/9 vs righties at home. Michael Pineda had a bad home outing vs the Phils in his last game he pitched here, but prior to that he allow just 2 ERs total in his last 2 home starts vs Miami and Kansas City. This is a weak Tampa offense that just won't put up enough runs to get the win here.   

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