Major league baseball on Saturday night and I will have a free pick in the game between the Miami Marlins and the San Diego Padres, which will be played at Petco Park in San Diego. First pitch is scheduled for an 8:40 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Over/ Under: 7 U -125
Miami ranks 25th in scoring (3.66 rpg), while on the mound they are 13th in ERA (3.72). The Padres rank 22nd in scoring (3.84 rpg), while on the mound they are 19th in ERA (3.94).
Trends for this game include: Miami is just 9-20 in their last 29 games as an underdog and 1-8 in Phelps' last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record, while The Padres are 36-17 in their last 53 games as a home favorite, but just 1-10 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.
Getting the ball for the Marlins tonight will be David Phelps, who is 4-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 19 games (15 starts) this year, while on the road he has gone 2-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 10 games (9 starts). He has never faced the Padres in his career.
Taking the hill for the Padres tonight will be Ian Kennedy, who is 5-9 with a 4.78 ERA in 17 starts this year, while at home he has gone 3-4 with a 5.76 ERA in 9 starts this year. Ian is 3-1 with a 3.11 ERA in 6 starts vs the Marlins.
Pick: I will go with the Padres in this one. This is a better team than they have displayed this year and they are taking on a Miami team that is in the midst of a long road trip and should be a bit tired by now. Ian Kennedy has not been good for the Padres overall, but he has been much better of late as he has allowed 3 ERs or less in 9 straight games and has an ERA of 2.81 in his last 7 starts. David Phelps has not been great on the road, as he has a 4.76 ERA away from home, which includes an ERA of 8.00 in his last 5 starts on the road. Neither offense is great right now, but I feel that San Diego will have many more chances vs Phelps than Miami will vs Kennedy.
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