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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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Saturday College Football Odds Mississippi Rebels vs Arkansas Razorbacks Free Pick

Saturday college football and we will see the Mississippi Rebels take on the Arkansas Razorbacks at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The game has a start time of 3:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBS. Current Vegas odds have Rebels listed as 3 point favorites, while the total is set at 45.  

Analysis: The Mississippi Rebels have had a nice year so far as they come in with an 8-2 record, but with the two losses they have been pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. The Rebels are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win, but just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games in November.Ole Miss has been a decent offensive team that ranks 41st in total yards, 32nd in passing, 58th in rushing and 42nd in scoring (33.4 ppg). The defense for the Rebels has been very tough this year, ranking 10th in yards allowed, 14th vs the pass, 26th vs the run and 1st in points allowed (11.9 ppg).

The Arkansas Razorbacks finally gave Brett Bielema an SEC win with their 17-0 shutout at home over LSU last week. the win now has Arkansas at 5-5 overall and 1-5 in the SEC. Arkansas is 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Arkansas has been a decent offensive squad this year, ranking 50th in total yards, 89th in passing, 22nd in rushing and 36th in scoring (34 ppg). The defense for the Razorbacks has been very good, ranking 23rd in yards allowed, 44th vs the pass, 22nd vs the run and 27th in points allowed (22.2 ppg).

Pick: I will go with the Under in this one. The Under is 13-3 in the Rebels’ last 16 road games and 4-1 in Arkansas’ last 5 SEC games. This game will be all about defense as the Rebels have one of the best in the nation, while the Razorbacks have played much better defense of late and excellent defense at home. Ole Miss has scored 28 ppg on the road, but one road game was vs a bad A&M defense and another was vs a bad Vandy defense. Their third road game was vs LSU and they scored just 7 points in that game and this Arkansas defense is much more like that of the Tigers than the first tow that Ole Miss faced on the road. The Hogs have allowed just 11.3 ppg in their last 3 games overall and just 16 ppg at home, which includes allowing a strong Alabama offense just 10 FD’s, 14 points and 227 total yards in an earlier game on this field. The Ole Miss defense has been very solid this year, allowing just 12 ppg overall and 11 ppg on the road, plus they have allowed just 15 ppg in SEC play and Arkansas has scored just 20 ppg in SEC play. Ole Miss and Arkansas both played LSU and Alabama, who both have great defenses and both games were low scoring. This one will follow suit as both defenses are tough and both offenses run the ball and are very conservative. Look for a 17-13 type game here.     

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