The 24th-ranked Boise State Broncos welcome in their rival Fresno State Bulldogs in Saturday college football action. The game is scheduled for a 3:30 pm start time and it will be televised nationally on the NBC Sports Network. Currently the odds for the game have the Broncos favored by a touchdown.
Boise State is typically ranked very high. However, Kellen Moore has graduated and gone to the NFL and now they don't have the best and most efficient quarterback in college football on campus. Insert Joe Southwick into the mix. The Broncos dropped a tough road game in their opener to Michigan State, but have since won their last four games. Most recently, they won back to back road games at New Mexico and Southern Miss.
The Broncos have struggled recently against good teams that can run the football, at least when it comes to the point spread. Boise is 0-7 against the number against teams that are averaging more than 4.7 yards per rush during the last two seasons. Fresno State, who is 2-0 in conference action so far this season, does run the ball pretty well, averaging 178 yards per game so far this year.
Remember when the Boise State team wasn't allowed to wear their blue uniforms on blue turf anymore? Yeah, so do we. Since then (last season) the Broncos have yet to cover a spread in a Mountain West game. It's not rocket science, but we do believe it has something to do with it. We think this game tonight is going to be a lot closer than some people think. Boise is a great football program, but we don't believe they're in the same mold as Bronco teams from the past four or five seasons.
Fresno State can run the football, but they are a team that really likes to move the ball down field through the air. The Bulldogs average 316 yards through the air so far this year, which ranks 13th in the country. Derek Carr has thrown for 18 touchdowns and more than 1,800 yards so far this season. He's going to be able to throw the ball against the Broncos today. Boise State won games over BYU, New Mexico and Southern Miss, and none one of those schools have a passing game at all, really. This will be a major difference in offensive philosophy for Boise's opponent.
Oh yeah, in the last two games between Boise and Fresno, they haven't been close. Like, at all. Boise has beat down Fresno 51-0 and 57-7 in the past two meetings between the two schools. If you think the Bulldogs aren't thinking about that or haven't been looking at those scores this past week in practice, you're missing something about college football. This Fresno team has something to prove today and we think they're going to get it done.
The Bulldogs have always had the "go anywhere, play anybody" philosophy under former coach Pat Hill, and most of the Bulldogs are his players and recruits. We think they'll be a live dog today with their ability to throw the ball downfield and they are going to be able to score points.
Free Pick: Fresno 31, Boise 28
College Football Free Picks: Fresno State at Boise State
What college football bettors need to know about Fresno State at Boise State on Saturday (10/13/12) - a best bet from Pregame.com's Chuck Edel, with Vegas Runner and host Chris Andrews.
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