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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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    Yesterday - 10:19 PM

NFL Free Pick, Betting Odds San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs


Sunday NFL and we will see the San Diego Chargers take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The game has a start time of 1:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBS. Current Vegas odds have the Chiefs listed as 1 point favorites, while the total is set at 40.5.   

Analysis:  The San Diego Chargers come in off an amazing 21 point comeback at San Francisco to put themselves right back in the race for a playoff spot. In fact should they win this game they will be in the playoffs. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, but just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC. The Bolts have been a very average offensive squad this year, ranking 19th in total yards, 9th in passing, 29th in rushing and 16th in scoring (22.7 ppg). The defense for San Diego has been solid, as they come in ranked 11th in yards allowed, 6th vs the pass, 26th vs the run and 13th in points allowed (21.9 ppg).

The Kansas City Chiefs are still alive for a playoff spot but they have some work to do and need some help along the way. Making it tougher for them is the fact that Alex Smith will miss this game. They come in off a tough road loss to Pittsburgh and now stand at 8-7 on the year. The Chiefs can get in with a win and a loss vy Baltimore and a loss or Tie by Houston. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.  The Chiefs have not been a great offensive team, ranking 22nd in total yards, 28th in passing, 10th in rushing and 17th in scoring (22.3 ppg). The defense for Kansas City has been very good, ranking 7th in yards allowed, 2nd vs the pass, 28th vs the run and 3rd in points allowed (18.3 ppg). 

Pick: I will look to the Chargers in this game. San Diego comes in with momentum after last week's huge comeback win vs the Niners and they also have revenge on their minds for an earlier home loss to the Chiefs. The Chiefs still have a tremendous run game, but they will be missing QB Alex Smith for this one and Chase Daniels is not really a good backup QB. The Chargers should be able to stack the box to stop the run and make Chase beat them, which is something I don't feel he can do. For San Diego, they had a big come back last week, but that will mean nothing if they lose this game vs the shorthanded Chiefs. Mike McCoy has a way of getting his team up for these big elimination type games and I feel that he will have them ready to make their way to the playoffs with a big win in this one.  

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