Analysis of the Sacramento Kings and Wednesday’s NBA Betting Preview
Welcome to an in-depth analysis of the latest episode of the NBA podcast on RJ Bell's Dream Preview, hosted by Munaf Manji with insights from NBA guru Mackenzie Rivers. This article dives into the Sacramento Kings' season outlook and previews key Wednesday NBA matchups, focusing exclusively on the transcript provided (NBAPOD22525). We'll break down each speaker's quotes, analyze player and team statistics mentioned, and provide a structured look at the betting recommendations—all with timestamps for context.
Opening Banter and Podcast Introduction
[Munaf Manji] (0:10 - 0:46)
"Welcome everyone to the NBA podcast on RJ Bell's Dream Preview. I'm your host Munaf Manj. You can find me on the Twitter machine at SportsNerd824. Here to get into some more NBA talk for the regular season. We'll preview some of the games on Wednesday, get you guys our best bets, of course, and get you guys a promo code over for Pregame.com. But love chopping it up about the NBA, of course, with my guy here himself, the NBA guru, Mackenzie Rivers. Mack, what's going on, man? How are you doing?"
Munaf sets the stage for an engaging episode, outlining the focus on regular season NBA talk, Wednesday game previews, and betting insights. His enthusiasm for discussing the NBA with Mackenzie Rivers is palpable, establishing a conversational tone. The mention of a promo code for Pregame.com hints at additional listener benefits, which we'll revisit later.
[Mackenzie Rivers] (0:47 - 1:00)
"What's up? What's up? It is 76 and kind of muggy actually here. I don't feel for anybody in Chicago or any other location. Just move to Vegas. Just move west. Move west, young man, and you'll do fine."
Mackenzie responds with a light-hearted take on Las Vegas weather—76°F and muggy—contrasting it with colder cities like Chicago. His playful advice to "move west" adds a personal touch, showcasing his Vegas bias and setting a relaxed vibe before diving into basketball.
[Munaf Manji] (1:01 - 1:05)
"How many weeks of winter do you actually get out in Vegas per year?"
Munaf keeps the banter going with a quick follow-up, probing Mackenzie’s weather claims and maintaining the casual lead-in to the main discussion.
[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:06 - 1:23)
"I think it snowed once. I saw a black and white book where there was some snow. It has snowed in my time here in Vegas. But literally, it's like the second you think, man, I'm tired of this cold, it's over. It's nice. It's the opposite of the summer. The second you think, oh man, it's hot, you got six months left."
Mackenzie elaborates, noting rare snowfall in Vegas and a short winter compared to a prolonged summer. This exchange serves as a fun icebreaker, contrasting Vegas’s climate with harsher winters elsewhere, before shifting to NBA analysis.
Sacramento Kings Segment: "I Got Five On It"
[Munaf Manji] (1:25 - 2:25)
"Yeah, look, a lot of stuff happening in the NBA. We're winding down to the postseason. Of course, there's a lot to be determined here in the association before we do get to the postseason. But let's dive right into it, Mackenzie. We talked about introducing the new segment. We've been doing pretty well with it. It's called I Got Five On It. Pretty much what we do. If you're a new listener, kind of pick one team out of the association, look at their season, give each other a win total, an updated win total, I should say, and whether we'll go over or under on it for the rest of the regular season. We'll talk about the team and then at the end of the season, we'll go back and look on how we did on our performance, on picking those updated win totals that have been set by either myself or Mackenzie. So I went last episode there. Mack has the floor for this episode. Mack, what's the team we're talking about here tonight?"
Munaf transitions smoothly into the NBA focus, emphasizing the nearing postseason and unresolved standings. He introduces the "I Got Five On It" segment, explaining its premise: selecting a team, setting an updated win total, and debating over or under. This sets up an analytical framework, with Mackenzie tasked to pick this episode’s team—the Sacramento Kings.
[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:25 - 3:20)
"I am feeling good about my sons under bet of all the futures I've given out. God dang, that one actually gave out sons over and actually bet it for money. But we won't talk about that. I'm feeling good about the sons under. Let's see if Munah feels good about this selection in a couple weeks. I have the Sacramento Kings up for you. The number I have, I haven't seen it posted anywhere, but 41 and a half wins. Are they going to be above 500? Some context with their new coach, Doug Christie. They're 16 and 9 straight up. On the season, they are 29 and 28, meaning prior to the coaching switch, tough schedule. They were 13 and 19 straight up, but their ATS records kind of bad either way, whichever coach you have. So have they turned it around or not? I don’t know, Munaf. It’s all on you. 41 and a half. I will take the side that you don’t take and wager you."
Mackenzie starts with a self-deprecating nod to his Phoenix Suns betting misadventure before focusing on the Kings. He sets their win total at 41.5, questioning if they’ll finish above .500. Key stats:
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Overall: 29-28 (slightly above .500).
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Under Doug Christie: 16-9 straight up, a significant improvement.
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Pre-Christie: 13-19 straight up, reflecting a tougher early schedule.
He notes their poor ATS (Against The Spread) performance regardless of coach, casting doubt on consistency. His challenge to Munaf adds a playful wager element, framing the discussion as a debate.
[Munaf Manji] (3:21 - 6:06)
"Yeah, this is Mack, one of the team that I’ve kind of struggled with, not only this season, but throughout the past couple of seasons, just because I think we’re still trying to figure out what the identity is of this Sacramento Kings team. And it just kind of feels like they’re throwing stuff at the wall and hoping that it sticks. You know, they made the trade for Zach Levine from the Chicago Bulls, paired him up with his old teammate, DeMar DeRozan. They added, you know, Valanchunas as a backup center to Demanis Sabonis. I did like that move. Give, you know, some Valanchunas could give you anywhere from 10 to 20 minutes a night. I think still a very capable backup center in the league. They do come in with the second toughest schedule remaining in the entire association. They have two games remaining against the Cavs, one against OKC, one against Boston, two against the Denver Nuggets. And the other tough opponents would be the New York Knicks and the Memphis Grizzlies. One game each against those teams. And, you know, this has been a team that sometimes likes to play with their food. I know they play the Charlotte Hornets just last night. They took care of in that game. But I think if there was a team that is going to fall out of the play in tournament bracket for the Western Conference, I think that team would be the Sacramento Kings. I mean, you take a look at the record you mentioned, right? Twenty nine and twenty eight on the season thus far. They’re 15 and 14 at home, 14 and 14 on the road. They’re 19 and 19 within the Western Conference. So I guess five hundred is where the team is going to end up. I think you made I think you made the best number here at forty one and a half. I will go with the under on the Sacramento Kings at forty one and a half. I don’t I still think they do end up as a tendency because I just don’t see the Phoenix Suns. I mean, they’ve lost what eight out of their last ten games. Sacramento is sorry. The San Antonio Spurs are trying to freefall a little bit, trying to struggle on defensive side of the basketball, obviously, without win. I know Portland’s been playing better. And then we know the story about Utah and New Orleans. I mean, their their season is pretty much wrapped up with 14 wins each for that team. But I just think the consistency and I think more so on the defensive side is where the Sacramento team really struggles. And I think when you do come in to the remaining regular season with what, about twenty five games for the left for the Sacramento Kings and the second toughest schedule, I think that’s where they’re going to trip up a little bit when they have to play the you know, some of the better competition, because not only do they have to do in their own conference, but also they still have top matchups or matchups against the top teams in the Eastern Conference, like we mentioned, two still against the Cavs, Boston, you know, New York as well. So I will take the under here, Mac, under 41 and a half for the Sacramento Kings."
Munaf picks under 41.5 wins, offering a detailed rationale:
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Identity Crisis: He struggles with the Kings’ lack of a clear identity, suggesting roster moves like trading for Zach Levine and adding Valanciunas (a capable backup for DeMar DeRozan, offering 10-20 minutes) are experimental rather than cohesive.
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Tough Schedule: The Kings face the second toughest remaining schedule, with games against elite teams (Cavs x2, OKC, Boston, Nuggets x2, Knicks, Grizzlies).
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Team Stats:
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15-14 at home, 14-14 on the road, indicating mediocrity.
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19-19 in the Western Conference, reinforcing a .500 trend.
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Play-in Risk: He predicts the Kings might drop from the play-in, citing defensive inconsistencies and a tendency to underperform against weaker teams (though they beat Charlotte recently).
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Western Conference Context: With 25 games left, the Suns’ slump (8 of 10 losses), Spurs’ defensive woes without Wembanyama, and Portland’s improvement don’t convince him the Kings will rise above .500.
His analysis hinges on the schedule’s difficulty and defensive shortcomings trumping their recent 16-9 run under Christie.
[Mackenzie Rivers] (6:07 - 7:18)
"I like your logic there. They have to win essentially more than half their games with twenty five games remaining. They got to win 13 games, which sounds like something they should do until you realize the average team they’re facing, which you mentioned, is winning fifty five percent of their game. So they have to be like a sixty percent team just to be better than five hundred or something like that. I think it’s betterable. I think if this number pops up, I would bet the under. But I think a better way to look at it, minus five hundred that they don’t make the playoffs. You mentioned that they likely will either be the 10th or the 11th seed. The team that they’re jousting with has the hardest strength of schedule. The Suns, as you mentioned, I don’t see the Spurs creeping up. I don’t see any of the other teams like the Clippers or the Lakers falling out. Maybe the Mavericks do. Talk about them later. But I tend to think that you’re right on the Kings. Under is the way to go, regardless of the coach. I just don’t think their performance has been that good. DeMar DeRozan, major disappointment. You look at his estimated plus minus. Worst in several years. And that’s what happens to a wing at this point in his career. So I tend to agree with you, but I booked you. So go Kings. I hope they win 80 games and then I’ll be the winner and you’ll be the loser. Be nice."
Mackenzie supports Munaf’s under pick:
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Math Breakdown: With 25 games left, the Kings need 13 wins (52%), but their opponents’ 55% win rate requires a 60% win rate—a tall order.
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Betting Insight: He’d bet the under if available and suggests a -500 odds bet they miss the playoffs, aligning with their likely 10th or 11th seed.
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Player Stat: DeMar DeRozan’s estimated plus-minus is the worst in years, reflecting age-related decline for a wing, undermining the team’s star power.
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Playoff Outlook: He doubts the Spurs, Suns, Clippers, or Lakers falter enough for the Kings to climb, though the Mavericks are a wildcard.
His agreement is tempered by his wager against Munaf, adding a competitive twist.
[Munaf Manji] (7:18 - 8:34)
"What do you think is the future of this team? Because, I mean, look, they broke the streak of missing the playoffs a few seasons ago and, you know, they try to build their team around De’Aaron Fox. Obviously, he’s not with his team anymore. Now there is going to be behind. I mean, I don’t know how many years DeMar DeRozan has left. The bonus is there. Now you traded for Zach Levine. Malik Monk has got inserted into the starting lineup for the Sacramento Kings team. And, you know, there was a point where they had both Tyrese Halliburton and De’Aaron Fox on this team. And it doesn’t work out with the, you know, both of those players. But I think it was a fair trade for both the Pacers and the Kings with a trade for Sabonis and, you know, in Hallie. But again, like I mentioned, I was just struggling with this team on what their what the direction is in the future of this team, because also not only is from a roster perspective, Mac, but it seems like at the head coaching position, there seems to be a lot of turnover with the Sacramento Kings team. I think you and I were talking about this offline that Mike Brown had won coach of the year a few seasons ago. And, you know, he got fired. And I think that’s kind of been a theme for some of these NBA coaches of the year. I don’t think Mark Dagnall will fall into that category for the Oklahoma City Thunder, but for the Sacramento Kings team, I just feel like they’re lacking what type of direction they want to go in for their foreseeable future."
Munaf shifts to the Kings’ future:
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Past Success: They ended a playoff drought a few seasons ago, initially building around De’Aaron Fox (now gone).
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Roster Moves: Current stars include DeMar DeRozan (aging), Zach Levine (new trade acquisition), and Domantas Sabonis, with Malik Monk starting.
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Trade Reflection: The Fox-for-Sabonis trade with the Pacers (involving Tyrese Haliburton) was fair but didn’t solidify direction.
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Coaching Instability: Mike Brown’s Coach of the Year tenure ended in firing, highlighting turnover—a contrast to stable coaches like Mark Daigneault (Thunder).
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Core Issue: Munaf sees a lack of clear identity and long-term vision.
[Mackenzie Rivers] (8:36 - 9:51)
"It’s a travesty, honestly, how bad the Kings have been as a franchise, and they finally made it, and they had one star player, and they traded him away. He was disgruntled. Maybe he wanted to go, but you look at the next few seasons, like next season, Levine’s going to be 48 million. Okay, that’s probably the worst contract in basketball, but okay. Sabonis is 44 million. I’m not sure that’s far behind. I know that people love Sabonis. He’s one of those gadget players that does everything, but unless you’re Nikola Jokic, and you’re the best player of all time, potentially, at least the best player in the world right now, I need my centers to be really good at defense. Hard to build a championship team around that. So, okay, maybe that’s not surplus value. Then DeMar DeRozan for 25 million. All right. Two years ago, that sounds like a great deal. Right now, he’s been an average wing, one point better than average, according to Dunks and Threes. I think this team kind of had their shot, and now they’re going to be an also ran for another 10, 15 years. I mean, there’s just too many teams in the NBA. If there’s one team to prove there’s too many teams in the NBA, literally, the Kings had Oscar Robertson when they were in Cincinnati. They had Chris Webber, and other than that, it’s just been a desert of nothing for 50 years."
Mackenzie offers a grim outlook:
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Historical Failure: The Kings’ rare stars (Oscar Robertson, Chris Webber) didn’t yield sustained success, with De’Aaron Fox’s exit continuing the trend.
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Contract Critiques:
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Zach Levine: $48 million next season, dubbed the “worst contract in basketball.”
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Domantas Sabonis: $44 million, versatile but not a defensive anchor like Nikola Jokic, limiting championship potential.
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DeMar DeRozan: $25 million, now just 1 point above average per Dunks and Threes, down from a bargain.
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Future Prediction: He foresees a decade-plus of irrelevance, blaming roster mismanagement and NBA oversaturation.
[Munaf Manji] (9:52 - 12:34)
"Hey, hey, put some respect on one page of Stajakovic. I mean, that was a team there. Yeah, but again, like you mentioned, it’s just too many teams in the NBA. I think there’s this expectation of every team being good every single season where there’s only a very good ever. That’s true too. Yeah, that’s yeah. So yeah, there you go. I’ll take the under 41 and a half for the Sacramento Kings there, and we’ll see what transpires, not only for this team, but the rest of the regular season if they are able to maintain that 10th spot in the Western Conference to get into the playing tournament, who right now, the season ended today, they would play the Golden State Warriors. And then Minnesota and Dallas holds a seven to eight spot right now in the Western Conference. Maggie, anything else for the Kings? Nope. All right, let’s get in to the Wednesday night betting card in the association."
Munaf defends Peja Stojakovic’s legacy but concurs with Mackenzie’s assessment. He locks in under 41.5, noting the Kings’ current 10th seed would pit them against the Warriors in the play-in, with Minnesota and Dallas at 7th and 8th. This concludes the Kings segment, transitioning to betting previews.
Wednesday Night Betting Preview
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
[Munaf Manji] (9:52 - 12:34)
"We’ll start it here with the first game we want to get into. That is going to be the Philadelphia 76ers. They are headed to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks. Knicks, currently as it stands on DraftKings, are a nine and a half point home favorite in this game, with a total of 232 and a half. Looking at the injury report for both of these teams, Joel Embiid has been officially ruled out. And Mac, I’ll get your thoughts on this, because I feel like he’s played his final game of the regular season, and possibly, in my eyes, as a member of the Philadelphia 76ers. As far as the other injury reports does go, Paul George is available to play. Eric Gordon is also done for the season. He opted for wrist injury. Kyle Lowry is also out. And then Yabu Selly is also out for this game for the Philadelphia 76ers. Tyrese Maxey is not listed on the injury report. I know he had been dealing with a finger injury, but he did play in the last game against the Chicago Bulls, where they got their doors blown out. For the New York Knicks side of things, OG Ananobi is probable for this game here, Mac. Mitchell Robinson is going to be out for this game. The big question mark for this game will be Karl-Anthony Towns. He’s in with a left knee injury. It was the last game for the Knicks, where it was against Boston, I believe, that got left with some type of knee injury. Did return, but again, you can just see when he returned that game, he just did not look right. So I would not be surprised if he does miss some time here. But officially, that’s questionable right now in this matchup. But nonetheless, Mac, Knicks laying nine and a half, hosting the lowly Sixers."
Munaf previews the game:
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Line: Knicks -9.5, total 232.5 (DraftKings).
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Sixers Injuries: Joel Embiid (out, possibly done as a Sixer), Eric Gordon (wrist, season), Kyle Lowry (out), Yabu Selly (out), Paul George (available), Tyrese Maxey (available, post-finger injury).
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Knicks Injuries: OG Ananobi (probable), Mitchell Robinson (out), Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable, knee).
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Context: Sixers were blown out by the Bulls recently; Towns struggled post-injury against Boston.
Munaf’s speculation about Embiid’s tenure adds intrigue.
[Mackenzie Rivers] (12:34 - 13:44)
"I think you got a motivated favorite here. My numbers make it nine and a half or nine. So you’re not missing out on much value, I think. And I kind of struggled with, I re-evaluated Joel Embiid. I had him worth five points. Clearly, I can’t have him worth five points. Is he worth two points? Is he worth three and a half points? I ended up making him worth three and a half points. So that technically makes the Sixers better. But I think there’s a whole, I mean, because they’re losing less without him, because he hasn’t been as productive this year. But I think the emotional side of losing him, of having the season be completely restart, makes me at least question their motivation on a night-to-night basis. I think Tyrese Maxey’s tremendously overrated whenever he hasn’t had an MVP candidate alongside him. He hasn’t looked that great when Embiid was out last year. He didn’t look that great. He hit some big shots in the playoffs. But I think the Knicks, after losses to the Cavs and the Celtics, almost lost to the Bulls, they’re going to have some angst that they want to exercise. And I think the Sixers are a great place to do it. So no value on the line, but I think the motivational factors makes me lean heavily towards the Knicks."
Mackenzie leans Knicks:
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Line Analysis: His model aligns at 9 or 9.5, no edge.
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Embiid Impact: Adjusted from 5 to 3.5 points, reflecting lower productivity, but emotional fallout questions Sixers’ drive.
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Maxey Critique: Deemed overrated without an MVP teammate, underwhelming sans Embiid last year.
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Knicks Motivation: Losses to Cavs and Celtics fuel a “get right” spot.
[Munaf Manji] (13:45 - 15:21)
*"Yeah, the Knicks coming off of two straight losses here against the better competition or teams that are above them, I should say, in that Eastern Conference and the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics. And for the Sixers team, I mean, look, they’ve lost eight games in a row. They’ve won, sorry, they’ve lost nine of their last 10 games, 10 and 20 at home this season, 10 and 17 on the road. They’re just three and eight within their own division, 14 and 23 within the Eastern Conference. And I think that you’re right. I think the motivational spot here for the New York Knicks just to kind of get right spot, right? Because you want to get the sour taste out of your mouth after losing two straight games against a better competition, possibly going to be without CAD here. But again, if you watched any of that Chicago Bulls in the Sixers game, you could see how bad. And I think I don’t want to say turmoil in the locker room, but the season is pretty much lost here for this Philadelphia 76, who was saying two and a half games out of the 10th spot of the Chicago Bulls right now. Like I mentioned, I don’t expect Joel Embiid to play for the remainder of the regular season. Paul George has been a shell of himself, focusing more on the podcast than anything for Paul George. And you mentioned Tyrese Maxey doing the best