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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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Rousing Sermon, Done Talking- Kentucky Derby 2012 Long Shots

Rousing Sermon (50-1): Record: 2-2-4 in 9 Races. Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer. Sire: Lucky Pulpit. Dam:Rousing Again. The California-bred colt has seldom failed to fire in nine career starts, and with a fast pace likely to develop in this Derby, the race would seem to set up to his late-running style. That Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said “yes” to the Derby instead of the Snow Chief for Cal-breds a week earlier is encouraging in itself. Jose Lezcano is one of the up-and-coming riding stars in North America and is due for a breakout. Rousing Sermon owns a win at 1 1/16 miles against California-breds, and his pedigree is that of a middle-distance runner. Although third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at nine furlongs, he must be considered very questionable at the Derby distance. Figures to be one of the handful of horses set at 50-1 on the morning line, and that seems justified given his true outsider status. Wouldn’t expect him to drift much in either direction from that benchmark number, which has proven magical in recent years with Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009), both of whom were exactly 50-1 in victory.

Done Talking (50-1): Record: 3-0-2 in 7 Races. Trainer: Hamilton A. Smith. Sire: Broken Vow. Dam:Dixie Talking. If you’re looking for an improving stretch-runner, you could do a lot worse than Done Talking, who has the look of a colt crying out for more distance. His two fastest races to date were at 1 1/8 miles, beginning with a promising try in the Remsen, in which he was last off a slow pace and ate up ground through a swift final fraction. After an excusable return on a wet track in the Gotham, he showed the ability to ship and win, rallying from far back to get up in the Illinois Derby. Done Talking’s pedigree fits very nicely at nine furlongs, and he came through with an upset win in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby at that trip April 7. Although his bloodlines are a bit questionable for 1 1/4 miles, his late-running style coupled with a hot pace up front could help him navigate the distance without too much hassle. An improbable winner, but he has a chance to hit the board at boxcar odds in the event of a pace meltdown. In that respect, the addition of speedy Trinniberg was good news.

Movie 2012 Kentucky Derby Best Bets: Pregame.com Pro Marco D'Angelo and Dave Tuley from ViewFromVegas.com and the Daily Racing Form discuss their 2012 Kentucky Derby best bets.