RBC Heritage 2025: First Round Leader Picks by Sleepy J & Dave Essler
As the PGA Tour moves to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage, two of Pregame.com’s sharpest golf minds — Sleepy J and Dave Essler — break down their top picks for First Round Leader bets. This analysis is grounded exclusively in the players' recent form, statistical profiles, course fit, and strategic betting value, all discussed in detail in their podcast.
? Expert Analysis Begins
Sleepy J kicks off the conversation by handing the mic to Dave Essler, who shares his three-pronged strategy for identifying undervalued first-round leaders.
Dave Essler’s First Round Leader Bets
Brian Campbell (80-1 Odds)
Essler sees strong value in Brian Campbell for several reasons:
-
Early Tee Time Advantage: Campbell is in the second group out Thursday morning — ideal for calm conditions and smooth greens.
-
Course Compatibility: Harbortown is tight and short with small greens. Campbell’s accuracy off the tee and his top-10 ranking in Strokes Gained Around the Green make him a perfect fit.
-
Recent Momentum: Despite multiple missed cuts leading up to the Masters, Campbell finished 32nd at Augusta, showing signs of resurgence.
Sami Välimäki (80-1 Odds)
Another value play from Essler is Sami Välimäki:
-
Elite Stat Profile: Excelling in most areas except putting, Välimäki’s game aligns well with Harbortown’s challenges.
-
Past Results: He finished 4th and 12th in recent Texas events, suggesting he’s in solid form.
-
Rested and Ready: Välimäki didn’t play last week, which Essler believes could give him a competitive edge.
-
Bonus Play: Essler also places a Top 20 bet at +450, reinforcing his confidence in Välimäki’s consistency.
Brian Harman (50-1 Odds)
Essler’s final pick is a more narrative-driven one:
-
Hometown Edge: Harman was born and raised in Savannah, just a few miles from Hilton Head.
-
Familiar Terrain: While stats aren’t discussed, Essler implies local comfort and knowledge of the course are key reasons for backing Harman.
? Sleepy J’s First Round Leader Bets
Akshay Bhatia (50-1 Odds)
Sleepy J sees Akshay Bhatia as a potential early-round aggressor:
-
Recent Performance: Finished 18th at RBC Heritage last year, and his game has improved since.
-
Post-Masters Energy: Unlike many who played all four days at Augusta, Sleepy believes Bhatia will test the waters early to determine if he should go for a full tourney push.
-
Tee Time: Bhatia goes out early Thursday, aligning with Sleepy’s broader first-round strategy.
Sam Burns (50-1 Odds)
A less conventional pick, Sam Burns gets a nod based on past course success:
-
Historical Edge: Recorded a 65 at Harbortown two years ago and has multiple rounds in the 60s.
-
Recent Slump: Slight dip in form over the last five events, but not far off statistically.
-
Rebound Potential: Harbortown’s layout may allow Burns to reset and capitalize on his short-game strengths.
Betting Strategy & Key Insights
Early Tee Times Rule
Both analysts focus on early Thursday starters, where conditions tend to favor lower scoring.
Accuracy Over Distance
Harbortown penalizes errant drives and poor approach play. Players with strong short games and approach precision are favored.
Form vs. Motivation
Sleepy J highlights mental readiness and player intent, especially for those coming off the Masters, like Bhatia and Burns. Essler leans more heavily on recent finishes and strokes-gained metrics.
Local Knowledge as an Edge
The “home game” narrative for Brian Harman is a unique pick that factors in geographic familiarity and emotional comfort.
Recap: Picks and Odds
Final Thoughts
The RBC Heritage demands precision and poise more than power, and Sleepy J and Dave Essler deliver a well-rounded lineup of bets that capitalize on every edge — from stat-based trends to motivational narratives. Their strategic lens, focused on tee time, course fit, and recent player rhythm, offers bettors an educated pathway to discovering first-round leaders at great odds.