When evaluating NFL player props, it's critical to dig deep into player performance, team matchups, and game scripts. This week, one of the more compelling bets involves Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White. Specifically, his total rushing and receiving yards has been set at 75.5 yards. While this may seem like a balanced line, a closer look at White's recent form, opponent defense, and the likely game dynamics shows why betting the under on this total is a wise choice. Let’s break it all down.

Rachaad White's Week 1 Performance: Concerning Inefficiencies (00:00 - 01:53)

Rachaad White entered the 2023 NFL season as the Buccaneers’ lead running back with big expectations. However, his performance in Week 1 against the Commanders was far from ideal. White finished the game with 39 rushing yards on 17 carries, which works out to an average of just 2.1 yards per carry—a highly inefficient figure that puts him among the worst starting backs in the league for Week 1.

In the passing game, White added 30 receiving yards on two receptions, bringing his total yardage for the game to 69 yards. While this is close to the 75.5-yard prop line for Week 2, the Washington defense wasn’t one of the league’s more formidable units, which makes this number appear inflated heading into a tougher matchup against the Detroit Lions.

The Detroit Lions Defense: A Stiff Challenge for White (01:54 - 02:50)

A critical element to consider is the strength of the Detroit Lions' defense, particularly against running backs. In Week 1, the Lions faced Kyron Williams of the Los Angeles Rams, a versatile back with skills in both the run and pass game. Detroit’s defense held Williams to a mere 2.8 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts, showing how effectively they can control the ground game.

Additionally, Williams only caught three passes for four receiving yards, further demonstrating Detroit’s ability to contain running backs in the passing game. Given White’s limited efficiency in Week 1, the likelihood of him putting up big numbers against such a strong defense seems slim.

Key stats vs. Detroit:

• Kyron Williams: 15 rushes, 2.8 YPC, 4 receiving yards
• Detroit Defense: Held RBs to a total of 40 rushing yards in Week 1

Game Script: Pass-Heavy Buccaneers Offense Likely (02:51 - 03:43)

One of the most important factors influencing player props is the game script, or how the game is expected to unfold. In Week 2, Tampa Bay is projected to be playing from behind, which will likely force them to turn to a pass-heavy offense. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield showed some positive signs in Week 1, connecting with his star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for big plays. Mayfield ended Week 1 with 173 passing yards and two touchdowns, suggesting that Tampa Bay could focus on attacking the Detroit secondary.

If the Buccaneers find themselves trailing early, White’s opportunities to rush the ball will be limited. Additionally, if the game script leans towards heavy passing, White may not see as many targets in the passing game, as Mayfield will likely prioritize his top wideouts over check-downs to White.

The Emergence of Backup Running Back Bucky Irving (03:44 - 04:30)

Another important factor that could impact Rachaad White’s total yardage is the presence of Bucky Irving, the Buccaneers’ backup running back. While White saw the majority of touches in Week 1, Irving made the most of his limited opportunities, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. This kind of production from a backup often leads to a shift in offensive strategy, with coaching staffs looking to get the more efficient runner more involved.

If Irving continues to perform at such a high level, the Buccaneers might choose to give him a larger role in Week 2, further reducing White’s chances of accumulating significant yardage. The NFL is notorious for rotating backs when the lead back is struggling, and White’s inefficiency in Week 1 might open the door for Irving to take more snaps.

The Game Script’s Impact on White’s Yardage (04:31 - 05:15)

If the game script follows its expected course, the Buccaneers could be playing from behind for much of the game, which will significantly impact White’s usage. In situations where teams are trailing, they tend to move away from the run game and focus more on passing. With wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin available, quarterback Baker Mayfield may look to spread the ball through the air, minimizing the number of touches that White will receive.

While White can still contribute as a pass-catcher, Detroit’s defense has shown they can effectively neutralize running backs in the passing game as well. This combination of reduced rushing attempts and limited effectiveness as a receiver makes it difficult to see White hitting the over 75.5-yard mark.

Overinflated Yardage Line: Why 75.5 Yards is Too High (05:16 - 06:00)

The 75.5-yard line set for Rachaad White’s total rushing and receiving yards seems inflated based on his Week 1 performance. While White came close to this total in the first game of the season, it’s important to note that he was playing against a weaker defense in Washington. Detroit’s defensive front is much stronger, and they have already shown their ability to limit running backs.

Moreover, White’s total yardage in Week 1 was largely buoyed by his receiving numbers, which were inflated due to the game script. In Week 2, with the Buccaneers likely trailing and facing a stiffer defense, it’s unlikely that White will see the same level of production.

Historical Data: White’s Struggles Against Top Defenses (06:01 - 07:00)

A deeper dive into Rachaad White’s historical performances against tough defenses shows a clear pattern of struggles. During the 2022 season, White faced several top-10 defensive units, and his yardage totals in those games were consistently low. For example, against the San Francisco 49ers, White rushed for only 36 yards on 14 carries, and against the New Orleans Saints, he managed just 28 rushing yards on 8 carries.

These performances against elite defenses highlight White’s difficulties when facing stronger defensive fronts, and with Detroit’s emerging defense, it’s reasonable to expect similar struggles in Week 2.

Historical Matchups:

• 49ers (2022): 36 rushing yards, 2.6 YPC
• Saints (2022): 28 rushing yards, 3.5 YPC

The Importance of Matchup-Based Prop Betting (07:01 - 07:45)

When betting on NFL player props, it's crucial to evaluate individual player matchups. While Rachaad White has potential, the matchup against the Lions is unfavorable. Detroit’s defense has proven they can shut down running backs, and White’s inefficiencies make this a difficult game for him to shine. Matchup-based betting allows for a more informed decision, helping bettors capitalize on lines that might not accurately reflect a player’s true potential for a given week.

Conclusion: Bet the Under on Rachaad White (07:46 - 08:30)

Given all the factors—White’s inefficient Week 1, the Lions' ability to limit running backs, the likelihood of a pass-heavy game script, and the emergence of Bucky Irving—it becomes clear that betting the under 75.5 total yards for Rachaad White is the smartest play for NFL Week 2. While White is a talented player, the combination of tough opposition and an unfavorable game scenario makes it unlikely he will hit this yardage total.

For those looking to place a prop bet, the under on White’s total yardage is one of the most promising opportunities for Week 2.

Summary

1. Rachaad White’s inefficiency in Week 1: White struggled with just 2.1 yards per carry in Week 1, raising doubts about his ability to surpass 75.5 total yards. (00:35)

2. Detroit’s stout defense: Detroit held Kyron Williams to just 2.8 YPC and 4 receiving yards, highlighting their ability to limit running backs. (01:45)

3. Backup Bucky Irving's emergence: Irving averaged 6.8 YPC in Week 1, and may cut into White’s workload in Week 2. (02:10)

4. Pass-heavy game script: Tampa Bay is expected to trail, leading to more passing plays and fewer rushing attempts for White. (03:55)

5. Overinflated line: The 75.5-yard total appears high, especially considering the tough matchup and White’s inefficiencies. (04:25)

6. Historical struggles: White has had difficulty against top-tier defenses, as shown by his low yardage totals in 2022 matchups against the 49ers and Saints. (06:05)

7. The importance of matchup-based betting: Understanding the dynamics of a player’s matchup is key to making informed prop bets. (07:10)

8. Prediction: Bet the under 75.5 total yards for Rachaad White based on all the contributing factors. (07:45)