Sunday NFL and we will see the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The game has a start time of 1:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on FOX. Current Vegas odds have the Packers listed as 10.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 46.5.
Analysis: The New England Patriots come in with an 11-3 record overall, which includes a 4-3 mark on the road. The Pats will clinch a first round bye with a win in this game and they will clinch homefield advantage with a win and a Denver loss. The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 16 and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games on fieldturf, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. New England has been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 8th in total yards, 6th in passing, 19th in rushing and 1st in scoring (31.6 ppg). The defense for the Patriots has been decent this year, ranking 17th in yards allowed, 22nd vs the pass, 11th vs the run and 8th in points allowed (20.0 ppg).
The New York Jets have had a miserable season so far, going just 3-11 overall and 2-5 at home. The countdown has begun for Rex Ryan as he is expected to be fired at the end of the season. 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December, but just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win and 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Jets have been a horrible offensive team this year, ranking 25th in total offense, 32nd in passing, 2nd in rushing and 29th in scoring (16.4 ppg). The Jet defense comes in ranked 6th in yards allowed, 20th vs the pass, 4th vs the run and 24th in points allowed (25.7 ppg).
Pick: I am going with the Pats in a blowout here. New England got a scare from New York in the earlier meeting and they still have a tone to play for in their quest for homefield advantage, so I expect them to be fully focused for this one. They cannot afford to look past the Jets here. This one seems rather simple. The Jets weakness on defense is their pass defense and that means that Brady should have a big day throwing vs them, even without Edelman playing. The Pats have averaged 31.6 ppg on the year, while the Jets have put up just 16.4 ppg on the year. The Pats have 8 wins of 15 points or more this year and in their 11 wins they have outscored teams by an average of 18.8 ppg. I just can't see the Jets hanging with New England in this one and I also don't see Brady and company letting up on the gas, even if they are already up big. Pats by at least 17 here.
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