It’s the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl and we will see the Navy Midshippmen take on the San Diego State Aztecs at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. The game has a start time of 9:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have the Aztecs listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 54.
Analysis: The Navy Midshippmen come into having won their last 3 games in a row to reach Bowl eligibility with a 7-5 record overall, which includes a 4-1 mark on the road. The Midshippmen are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 vs. MWC and 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. The Under is 9-1 in Navy's last 10 games in December, while the Over is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. Navy has been a decent offensive squad this year, ranking 46th in total yards, 127th in passing, 2nd in rushing and 40th in scoring (33.1 ppg). The Navy defense has not been that great, ranking 80th in yards allowed, 42nd vs the pass, 98th vs the run and 80th in points allowed (28.2 ppg).
The San Diego State Aztecs also come into this game with a 7-5 record on the year overall, while going a perfect 6-0 at Qualcomm this year. The Aztecs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Under is 6-0 in San Diego State's last 6 vs. an independent and 16-5 in their last 21 games on grass, which includes an 8-0 mark to the Under on grass this year. The Aztecs have not been a great offensive squad, ranking 67th in yards allowed, 106th in passing, 31st in rushing and 86th in scoring (25.8 ppg). The defense for the Aztecs has been very good, ranking 21st in total yards allowed, 19th vs the pass, 43rd vs the run and 14th in points allowed (20.1 ppg).
Pick: I will be going with the Under in this one. San Diego State games have averaged just 45.9 ppg, with the UNDER going 11-1 in those games this year. A big reason for this is that the Aztecs are primarily a grind it out conservative offensive squad while also possessing a super solid defense that has allowed just 20.1 ppg on the year. As for the Midshippmen, they are also a running team and while their defense is not super, it doesn't have to be vs the Aztec offense. Navy is 127th in the nation in passing, while the Aztecs are 106th. This will be a game that the clock just keeps running and that should keep the score in the 40s.
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