Players' Championship at TPC Sawgrass: Betting Preview, Analysis & Predictions
The Players' Championship at TPC Sawgrass is one of the most anticipated events on the PGA Tour calendar, and this episode of the Golf Preview Podcast, hosted by Will Doctor on the PreGames Network, dives deep into betting analysis, player statistics, and predictions for the tournament. With insights from recent events, betting odds, and detailed player evaluations, this breakdown offers a comprehensive look at what to expect.
Russell Henley’s Victory at Bay Hill
Russell Henley claimed his fifth PGA Tour victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, edging out Collin Morikawa by one stroke. Henley’s consistent top-10 finishes this season have propelled him into the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings for the first time in his career. Despite losing distance off the tee, Henley excelled in greens in regulation, ranking second in the field, and showcased an elite short game that was highlighted by his chip-in eagle on the 16th hole during the final round.
Collin Morikawa, a two-time major champion, once again faltered after holding a late lead, marking his 11th runner-up finish since 2024. While Morikawa ranked fourth in strokes gained off the tee and fifth in approach play, his putting struggles on Bermuda greens proved costly.
Top Contenders and Betting Odds
With the Players' Championship approaching, Will Doctor analyzed the top five favorites and their odds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+550): The defending champion, known for his elite ball striking, struggled with his putter at Bay Hill, losing over five strokes on the greens.
- Rory McIlroy (12-1): A past winner at Sawgrass, McIlroy’s putting has been inconsistent at this venue, but he showed improvement at Bay Hill.
- Collin Morikawa (14-1): Despite his strong tee-to-green performance, Morikawa’s putting on Bermuda greens has historically been weak.
- Ludvig Åberg (18-1): An elite driver, Åberg’s iron play has been inconsistent, making him a risky bet.
- Justin Thomas (25-1): A past champion, but his recent results at Sawgrass (60th and missed cut) raise concerns.
Best Betting Picks for the Players' Championship
Head-to-Head Matchup
- Russell Henley over Sam Burns (-180): Henley has been in top form, while Burns has struggled with his approach play and has an unimpressive record at Sawgrass.
Top-20 Finish Predictions
- Tommy Fleetwood (+150): One of the most consistent ball strikers, Fleetwood has multiple top-10 finishes since the Olympics.
- Aaron Rai (+188): A strong approach player, Rai’s putting has improved, making him a solid value pick.
- Robert MacIntyre (+200): With two top-10 finishes in his last three events, MacIntyre is trending upward.
Outright Winners
- Wyndham Clark (66-1): Finished fourth at the Players' last year, with elite putting on Bermuda greens.
- Jordan Spieth (70-1): A top putter with strong course history, making him a high-value pick.
- Michael Kim (90-1): One of the most consistent players recently, with three top-six finishes in his last five events.
Sleeper Pick
- Jason Day to Top 10 (+400): A past champion at Sawgrass with strong recent putting performances.
First Round Leader Pick
- Michael Kim to Top 10 after Round 1 (+550): A strong ball striker in excellent form.
DFS & Fantasy Lineup Strategy
DraftKings Lineup ($50K Budget):
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9.8K)
- Wyndham Clark ($9.4K)
- Jordan Spieth ($8.8K)
- Jason Day ($8.1K)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7.5K)
- Michael Kim ($5.9K)
PGATOUR.com Lineup:
- Starters: Wyndham Clark, Jordan Spieth, Michael Kim (Captain), Jason Day
- Bench: Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick
Final Predictions & Best Bet
Weather conditions will be ideal early in the week, with soft greens and minimal wind, but gusts up to 30 mph over the weekend could impact scoring. The projected winning score is 17 under par.
Best Bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick to Top 20 (+320)
Fitzpatrick finished fifth at the Players' last year and had a strong putting performance at Bay Hill. His course history and iron play make him a strong pick.
For the latest updates and more betting insights, follow Will Doctor (@DRmedia59) on X as he previews the Valspar Championship next week.