The Finals of the NIT Tournament take place tonight and we will see the Baylor Bears take on the Iowa Hawkeyes at Madison Square Garden in New York. The game is scheduled for a 7:00 pm (Eastern) start time and will be televised on ESPN 2. Currently the Odds for the game have Iowa favored by 1.5 points while the total sits at 141.
Analysis: The Hawkeyes are 10-0 ATS (8-2 SU) in their past 10 games, and have beaten all four NIT opponents by double-figures. Despite shooting a paltry 42.1% FG, they were still able to put away Maryland 71-60 in Tuesday's semifinal win. Iowa is not a strong offensive team, averaging just 70.4 PPG (100th in nation) on 42.2% FG (230th in D-I) and 30.9% threes. But this team never takes a possession off defensively, holding teams to 62.5 PPG on 38.9% FG (18th in nation) and 29.5% threes (15th in D-I). This is also a very intelligent team, sporting a 1.21 Ast/TO, while posting 4.9 blocks per game and a +4.8 RPG margin. This is a very deep squad, with 10 players logging more than 11 MPG during the NIT. Junior swingman Roy Devyn Marble (15.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.0 APG) has been phenomenal in this tournament, scoring at least 21 points in all four NIT games, averaging 24.3 PPG on 49.2% FG and 26-of-32 FT (81%). Marble has also dished out 19 assists with just seven turnovers in the four victories. Sophomore PF Aaron White (12.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG) has also had a strong NIT with 10.0 PPG and 8.3 RPG in the four wins. Iowa is 19-2 when scoring at least 70 points.
The Bears have been winning in this tournament with an explosive offense that has scored 89.0 PPG on 52.1% FG, but they made just 43% of their shots in Tuesday's 76-70 win over BYU. Baylor shoots a high percentage (45.0% FG) thanks to an unselfish offense averaging 15.0 APG (33rd in D-I). However, the Bears aren't a great three-point shooting team (35.5%), and they really struggle from the foul line, making just 68.9% FT. Baylor is not a particularly strong defensive team either, giving up 66.7 PPG and producing just 6.5 steals per game. Senior PG Pierre Jackson (19.9 PPG) is one of the most dynamic college players in the country with 7.0 APG, a 2.06 Ast/TO ratio and a strong 1.5 SPG. He also shoots 80% from the foul line despite playing so many minutes for this team (34.7 MPG). After receiving just 20 minutes of action in the blowout of Long Beach State, Jackson has been remarkable in the past three games, averaging 23.3 PPG (33-of-38 FT), 13.0 APG, 5.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG. He also has 39 assists and just 10 turnovers in the past three contests. Junior PF Cory Jefferson (13.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) has sizzled in the NIT, scoring 20.8 PPG on 72% FG with 5.8 RPG. Despite picking up four fouls, Jefferson still scored 21 points on 8-of-11 FG in Tuesday's win over BYU. Baylor tied a school record with four postseason wins, including a 2009 NIT runner-up finish to Penn State and a 1948 NCAA runner-up finish to Kentucky.
Pick: I am looking at the Over in this game. The Baylor offense has been nearly unstoppable in the NIT as they have averaged 89 ppg. On the road this year the Bears have averaged 69.9 ppg, while in their 5 neutral site games they have put up 77.4 ppg. I know they will be facing a tough Iowa defense, but this team has more than enough offense to put up 70 points on them. Iowa's offenses has averaged 73.7 ppg in their last 3 games and that includes putting up 75 at Virginia, where the Cavs have allowed less than 50 ppg. This offenses is more than capable of putting up 70+ on a Baylor defense that has allowed 70.4 ppg on the road and 71.2 ppg in their neutral site games. Both teams do play at a rather fast pace and both offenses are clicking right now. With this being a there's no tomorrow game you can bet that one of the teams will be fouling till the end as well. I look for at least 148 points scored in this one.
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