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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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Pro Football Betting Odds Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts Free Pick

Wildcard weekend and we will see the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game has a start time of 1:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBS. Current Vegas betting odds have Indianapolis listed as 3 point favorites, while the total is set at 48.  

Analysis:  The Cincinnati Bengals took a 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh in week 17, which cost them the AFC North Title For the year the Bengals went 10-5-1 overall and 5-3 on the road. One of their road losses this year was a 27-0 loss at Indy in Week 7. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games on fieldturf, but 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games. Cincinnati's offense has been very very average this year, ranking 15th in total yards, 21st in passing, 6th in rushing and 15th in scoring (22.8 ppg). The defense for this team hasn't been great, as they come in ranked 22nd in yards allowed, 20th vs the pass, 20th vs the run and 12th in points allowed (21.5 ppg).

The Indianapolis Colts reside in the AFC South, so winning that division is no real big feat.  The Colts did finish the year at 11-5 overall, but they were 6-0 vs their Division and 5-5 vs the rest of the NFL, while beating just 2 teams all year that are in the playoffs. The Colts are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. AFC, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in January. Indianapolis has been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 3rd in total yards, 1st in passing, 22nd in rushing and 6th in scoring (28.6 ppg). The defense for the Colts has been decent, ranking 11th in yards allowed, 12th vs the pass, 18th vs the run and 19th in points allowed (23.1 ppg).

Pick: I am going with the Colts in this one. Both teams have struggled in recent playoff years, but  I give the clear edge to Pagano over Lewis and Luck over Dalton. Last year Luck had a miserable post season, throwing 7 picks in the two games, so I look for him to have a strong showing in this one vs a Bengals defense that is 20th vs the pass this year. Luck did orchestrate a huge come back in the game vs Kansas City, so once he gets hot he stays that way and I look for him to come out hot in this one. The Bengals will be missing AJ Green for this one and they have found it very hard at times this year to generate much offense without him in there. Making it worse is the fact that the Colts have allowed 17.8 ppg at home this year and that includes throwing a shutout vs the Bengals in week 7. The colts have thrown for 281.4 ypg and have scored 28 ppg at home this year, while the Bengals have allowed 231.4 ypg through the air and have scored just 18.8 ppg on the road. Dalton is the worst big game QB in the league and he will make enough mistake to give the Colts a rather easy win in this one.   

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