In Week 5 of the NFL season, Steve Rieder offers a well-reasoned prop bet, focusing on Indianapolis Colts backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. Rieder recommends betting on Minshew to finish with under 195.5 passing yards in his matchup against the Denver Broncos. Despite Minshew’s potential and flashes of brilliance in the past, a combination of factors—including Denver's elite defense, Minshew's known struggles under pressure, and the team's overall situation—supports the case for betting the under. This article will delve into Rieder’s reasoning, along with player and team statistics that further bolster the case for this bet.

Minshew’s Passing Yardage and Denver’s Stifling Defense

At the heart of Rieder’s recommendation is Denver’s defensive prowess, particularly their ability to limit passing yardage. Denver has allowed the third-fewest passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, a fact that sets the stage for a tough matchup for Minshew. When looking at the Broncos’ defensive statistics, it’s clear they’ve consistently performed at a high level, particularly in limiting the air attack. This is essential when betting on Minshew’s under.

In Denver’s only home game this season, they held Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields to just 117 passing yards. Rieder acknowledges that Fields has been an inconsistent performer at times, but this game was an outlier even for him. Fields has averaged 238 passing yards in his other games this season, demonstrating that the Broncos' defense significantly limited him. This comparison highlights Denver's capacity to restrict opposing quarterbacks, even when they typically post much better numbers against other defenses.

Rieder’s insight points to Denver’s home-field advantage at Mile High Stadium, where they are particularly effective early in the season. The altitude of Denver presents unique challenges, making it harder for opposing teams, especially quarterbacks, to execute their game plans. This environmental factor is another reason why Minshew will likely struggle to pass for over 195.5 yards in this game.

Key Statistics:

• Denver’s defense: Third fewest passing yards allowed to quarterbacks in the NFL.
• Justin Fields Example: Denver held Fields to 117 yards, despite his average of 238 passing yards in other games.
• Mile High Advantage: Denver’s home-field is historically difficult for opposing teams.

Minshew’s Struggles Under Pressure

Another major component of Rieder’s analysis is Minshew’s well-documented struggles under pressure. When Minshew is under duress, his performance significantly declines. His completion rate drops to just 48.3% when facing pressure from opposing defenses, a concerning statistic for anyone betting on Minshew to have a strong game. Unfortunately for Minshew, Denver’s defense excels at applying pressure on quarterbacks.

The Broncos rank fifth in the league in blitz pressure rate, meaning they can get after quarterbacks at an elite level. Rieder argues that this will likely cause Minshew to struggle to complete passes, let alone rack up significant passing yards. Without adequate protection from his offensive line, Minshew will be forced to throw under duress throughout the game. This inability to handle pressure further strengthens the case for betting the under on his passing yards.

Denver’s ability to pressure quarterbacks combined with Minshew’s poor performance under those conditions presents a recipe for disaster. It becomes less likely that he will have time to survey the field, find his receivers, and accumulate yardage. Given these dynamics, the odds of Minshew surpassing 195.5 yards seem slim.

Key Statistics:

• Minshew’s Completion Rate: Only 48.3% under pressure.
• Denver’s Defense: Fifth in the NFL in blitz pressure rate.

Impact of Davante Adams’ Uncertainty

On top of the pressure issues, Minshew faces a significant setback in his receiving corps. His top wide receiver, Davante Adams, is dealing with a series of off-field issues that cloud his status for the upcoming game. Adams is reportedly dealing with injuries, a potential trade request, and may not be fully available for the game. This absence or reduced involvement limits Minshew’s options, particularly when facing an already formidable Denver defense.

Without a reliable number one target like Adams, Minshew will be forced to rely on secondary receivers, which further lowers his chances of posting significant passing yardage. Rieder stresses that this uncertainty surrounding Adams compounds the challenges Minshew already faces against Denver’s defense. Even if Adams plays, his effectiveness could be limited, making it even harder for Minshew to gain yardage through the air.

Key Impact:

• Davante Adams: Injury and off-field issues affecting his availability and performance.

The Possibility of Minshew Being Benched Mid-Game

One final factor in Rieder’s analysis is the potential for Minshew to be benched during the game. He references Week 3, when Minshew was replaced by Aiden O’Connell after a poor performance. If the game against Denver follows a similar pattern and Minshew struggles early, it’s possible that he could be benched again in favor of O’Connell or another backup. This would obviously prevent Minshew from reaching 195.5 passing yards, making the under bet more secure.

Even if Minshew manages to play the full game, Rieder argues that he’ll still be hard-pressed to eclipse 195.5 passing yards given the combination of Denver’s defense, his struggles under pressure, and the uncertainty surrounding Adams. However, the possibility of him being replaced mid-game adds another layer of confidence for those betting the under.

Key Possibility:

• Benching Potential: Minshew was previously benched in Week 3 and could face a similar fate if he struggles.

Conclusion: A Strong Case for Betting the Under

Rieder’s analysis makes a compelling case for betting the under on Gardner Minshew’s passing yards in Week 5. Denver’s defense has proven to be highly effective at limiting passing yards, particularly at home, while Minshew’s struggles under pressure make him vulnerable to their blitz-heavy scheme. The uncertainty surrounding Davante Adams’ availability further diminishes Minshew’s chances of success, and the potential for him to be benched mid-game only adds to the reasons why betting the under is a sound choice.

With Denver’s defense ranking among the best in the league and Minshew’s known weaknesses under pressure, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where he surpasses 195.5 passing yards. For those looking to place a prop bet in Week 5, Rieder’s recommendation to bet the under on Minshew’s passing yardage seems like a calculated and well-supported decision.

Final Stats Recap:

• Denver Defense: Third fewest passing yards allowed, fifth in blitz pressure rate.
• Minshew: Only completes 48.3% of passes under pressure.
• Justin Fields Example: 117 yards against Denver, despite averaging 238 in other games.

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