NFL Week 4 Recap: Buy, Sell, and Key Betting Strategies with Fezzik’s Insights

This article delves into an in-depth analysis of NFL Week 4, focusing on team performances, quarterback struggles, and power rankings. Steve Fezzik, a renowned NFL bettor, shares his strategic take on betting opportunities and highlights significant trends moving into Week 5. Along with co-host Munaf Manji, Fezzik dissects player and team stats, discusses “phony” final scores, and offers valuable betting insights for NFL enthusiasts.

Miami Dolphins: A Team in Crisis

A key topic throughout the podcast is the Miami Dolphins' persistent struggles. According to Fezzik, Miami’s season has been derailed by poor quarterback play, despite having talented offensive stars like Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle.

Fezzik stresses that a major failure for Miami has been their lack of a competent backup quarterback. With Tua Tagovailoa’s well-documented concussion history, the Dolphins’ management should have invested in a high-quality backup. Instead, they’ve been forced to rely on Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley, who have shown little promise. Fezzik even goes so far as to predict that Miami will finish the season with a disappointing 6-11 record.

He also emphasizes that this team should be targeted for under bets on season win totals, especially since their quarterback depth remains a glaring weakness. “Miami's issues at quarterback can’t be ignored,” Fezzik explains, “and without a solid QB, no amount of offensive talent will help them succeed.”

The Dolphins’ weak QB play isn’t the only issue — the team also struggles defensively, which became apparent during their Monday Night Football loss to the Tennessee Titans. Fezzik’s analysis predicts that betting against the Dolphins, particularly in matchups against stronger teams, is a solid strategy going forward.

Phony Final Scores: A Closer Look at Misleading Results

One of Fezzik’s signature insights is his concept of phony final scores — results that don’t accurately reflect the flow of the game or the true strength of the teams involved. In Week 4, several games stood out as misleading based on final scores, with betting implications for Week 5.

1. New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

The Jets' Week 4 loss to the Broncos is a perfect example of a phony final score. Despite losing, Fezzik believes the Jets should have won by three or four points. The Jets outplayed Denver for most of the game but failed to execute in key moments, leading to their eventual loss.

For bettors, this highlights an important lesson: always look beyond the final score when evaluating a team's performance. The Jets, for example, are a team that could outperform expectations moving forward, particularly in matchups against weaker opponents.

2. Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns

Fezzik points to Atlanta's narrow win over Cleveland as another example of a phony final score. The Falcons benefitted from two fluke touchdowns — one from a pick-six and another from a quirky fumble recovery in the end zone. Even with these two lucky breaks, Atlanta barely won the game and failed to cover the spread.

This outcome suggests that Atlanta is overrated based on their Week 4 result. Fezzik suggests downgrading the Falcons in power rankings, while upgrading Cleveland, as the Browns showed more consistent play throughout the game.

These phony final scores emphasize the need for bettors to dig deeper into the statistics behind a game rather than relying solely on the final score to shape their betting decisions.

Rising Teams: Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens

Fezzik highlights two teams on the rise after Week 4 — the Minnesota Vikings and the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams have performed well in recent weeks and have moved up in Fezzik’s power rankings.

Minnesota Vikings

After a dominant 28-0 win over Green Bay, the Vikings have climbed to 7th place in Fezzik’s rankings. Led by standout performances from Justin Jefferson and a resurgent Sam Darnold, the Vikings are proving to be one of the most consistent teams in the NFL.

Fezzik praises Minnesota’s balanced offense and their ability to execute in high-pressure situations. Their success against Green Bay shows that they are capable of competing with top-tier teams, making them a team to watch in future weeks.

Minnesota’s rise in the rankings also opens up betting opportunities, particularly in season win total bets. Fezzik believes that the Vikings are on track to exceed expectations, and bettors should consider betting on their upward trajectory as the season progresses.

Baltimore Ravens

Fezzik places the Ravens among the top three teams in the league, tied with Kansas City and San Francisco. Despite a 2-2 record, Baltimore has shown impressive balance on both sides of the ball, particularly in their Week 4 victory over the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills.

Led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens’ offense is explosive, while their defense has proven capable of holding strong against tough opponents. Fezzik's optimism for Baltimore centers around their consistent ability to adjust mid-game and close out tight contests.

Bettors looking for a future contender should take note of Baltimore’s rise. Their strong performances, coupled with favorable matchups in the coming weeks, make them a solid pick for future Super Bowl or AFC Championship bets.

Power Rankings Update: Washington Commanders on the Rise

Fezzik’s power rankings saw notable shifts after Week 4, with Washington being one of the biggest movers. Initially ranked as a below-average team, Washington has surprised many with their recent performances, moving up significantly in Fezzik’s standings.

Washington Commanders

Much of Washington’s success can be attributed to the play of quarterback Jaden Daniels, who has found his rhythm and delivered back-to-back strong performances. After defeating Cincinnati on Monday Night Football and securing a win over Arizona, Washington is proving they can compete with stronger teams.

Fezzik points out that Washington is no longer a team to overlook and might even be in the playoff conversation if they continue their current form. For bettors, Washington presents an opportunity for positive value bets, particularly in games where they may be underestimated by the betting markets.

Betting Strategy: Focus on Season Wins

While many bettors are drawn to high-risk futures bets, such as Super Bowl winners or MVP awards, Fezzik advises focusing on season win totals. He argues that these bets provide a more reliable way to profit, as they offer a wider margin of error compared to futures that depend on a single outcome.

Fezzik uses the example of Jacksonville, a team that is underperforming this season. Bettors can still find value in betting under six-and-a-half season wins for Jacksonville, as their struggles suggest they are unlikely to turn things around. With 13 games left, Jacksonville would need to finish 7-6 to beat the bet — an overachievement that Fezzik deems unlikely.

For bettors looking to maximize their returns, focusing on season wins offers more consistent returns and less exposure to risk than long-shot futures.

Conclusion

Fezzik’s Week 4 analysis provides bettors with actionable insights into key teams, players, and betting strategies. Miami’s quarterback struggles, misleading final scores, and the rise of teams like Minnesota and Baltimore offer plenty of opportunities for those looking to capitalize on upcoming games.

As Week 5 approaches, Fezzik advises focusing on season win totals, as they offer the most stable returns in a volatile betting landscape. With major movers like Washington climbing the ranks and powerhouses like Baltimore solidifying their positions, NFL bettors have a wealth of opportunities to explore.