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Stories

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NFL Week 4 Player Props + Monday Night Football Preview

The podcast opens with Munaf Manji (0:12 - 0:51) introducing the Week 4 NFL player props episode, along with his co-hosts Steve Reeder and SleepyJ. They dive into player prop predictions for key positions, covering quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. The trio shares their detailed insights, statistical analysis, and betting angles for the upcoming slate of NFL action, while also providing commentary on two upcoming Monday Night Football matchups.


Quarterback Props

SleepyJ (4:01 - 4:51) kicks off the quarterback prop discussion by selecting Justin Fields for over 40.5 rushing yards. He emphasizes that Fields’ rushing ability will be crucial in this matchup against the Colts, whose defense has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. He notes that Malik Willis, another rushing quarterback, managed to get 41 yards against the Colts a few weeks earlier, making this a good opportunity for Fields to exceed his rushing total. The Colts’ secondary, Sleepy explains, is the strongest part of their defense, and with the Bears' running backs dealing with injuries, Fields may have to run more often than usual.

Steve Reeder (5:42 - 8:05) suggests fading Jordan Love in his under bet. Steve’s reasoning stems from Love’s injury concerns, which may limit his mobility and overall effectiveness in the upcoming game against the Vikings. Steve points out that while Love has practiced, he’s likely not fully recovered from the injury, which is expected to affect his performance. He highlights Love’s previous performances against Minnesota, noting that while he has been serviceable, he may struggle against a defense that has improved since last season. Steve compares Love’s situation to other quarterbacks returning from injury, emphasizing that it’s risky to assume Love will perform at his usual level.

Munaf Manji (8:55 - 10:30) concludes the quarterback prop section by selecting Kyler Murray for over 1.5 passing touchdowns in his game against the Washington Commanders. Munaf breaks down how Washington’s defense has consistently allowed two or more passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Even quarterbacks like Daniel Jones and Josh Allen have found success against Washington’s secondary. Munaf believes Murray will use his dual-threat capabilities—combining his running and passing—to exploit the Commanders' defense and hit this mark with ease.


Running Back Props

The conversation shifts to running backs, where SleepyJ (10:50 - 12:09) selects Choba Hubbard to score a touchdown at even money. Hubbard has been receiving a high volume of touches, totaling 26 in the previous game, which Sleepy argues makes him a prime candidate to score in Week 4. He outlines how the Bengals defense has struggled, particularly in the red zone, allowing significant rushing yards. Sleepy predicts that the Panthers will continue relying on Hubbard to shoulder the rushing workload, increasing his chances of finding the end zone.

Steve Reeder (13:05 - 14:52) turns to Bijan Robinson, selecting him for over 69.5 rushing yards. Steve acknowledges concerns about Robinson’s shoulder injury, but remains confident that the Falcons’ star running back will exceed his rushing yard total. Robinson has been a focal point in the Falcons' offense, averaging 16 carries per game. Steve adds that the Saints' defense, while statistically impressive, has been exposed by elite running backs this season, with Saquon Barkley putting up 147 yards against them. Steve believes this is a great matchup for Robinson to thrive.

Munaf Manji (14:53 - 16:39) picks Aaron Jones for over 21.5 receiving yards, noting that Jones has consistently exceeded this total in recent weeks. Munaf explains that Jones has been an integral part of the passing game for the Packers, seeing an increase in targets. With the Packers’ running game struggling, Munaf expects quarterback Sam Darnold to rely on checkdowns to Jones, which will allow him to surpass his receiving yardage mark. He points out that Jones has been targeted six times in each of the last two games, making this prop a strong pick for Week 4.


Wide Receiver Props

For wide receivers, SleepyJ (17:34 - 18:51) focuses on Kyron Williams for over 16.5 receiving yards. Williams has been thrust into a bigger role in the Rams’ offense due to injuries to wide receivers like Cooper Kupp. Sleepy notes that while Williams is primarily a running back, his versatility and the Rams' need for more offensive production will lead to him being targeted in the passing game. He explains that Stafford will likely utilize Williams more in this matchup, given the limited options at receiver, making this prop appealing.

Steve Reeder (19:54 - 21:44) backs Josh Downs to surpass 34 receiving yards. He notes that Downs has quickly developed a strong connection with quarterback Anthony Richardson, and with Downs now healthy, he expects a significant performance. Steve breaks down how the Steelers’ defense excels at stopping the run but can be exploited in the passing game. With the Colts likely leaning on their passing attack, Steve expects Downs to see more targets and surpass his receiving yardage mark.

Munaf Manji (23:59 - 24:55) goes with Dalton Kincaid for over 37.5 receiving yards. Munaf explains that the Ravens' defense has struggled to contain tight ends this season, making this a favorable matchup for Kincaid. He notes that the Ravens have allowed some of the highest totals to tight ends in recent weeks, which puts Kincaid in a great position to perform well. Munaf predicts that Josh Allen will look to Kincaid early and often in this game, particularly in short-yardage situations.


Tight End Props

SleepyJ (24:56 - 27:17) backs Travis Kelsey for over 4.5 receptions, even though Kelsey has had a slow start to the season. Sleepy believes Kelsey is motivated to bounce back after his underwhelming performances and will be heavily targeted in this game against the Chargers. Kelsey has a history of strong games against the Chargers, having caught at least five passes in each of his last six matchups against them. With Kansas City needing a spark in their passing game, Sleepy expects Kelsey to see significant targets and surpass this total.

Steve Reeder (28:32 - 29:58) takes an under bet on Kyle Pitts, predicting he’ll go under 36.5 receiving yards. Steve argues that Pitts has been underutilized in the Falcons' offense, with only eight receptions and 12 targets over the first three games. He explains that Pitts' role in the offense has diminished as the Falcons focus more on running the ball and utilizing their top receiver, Drake London. Steve suggests that Pitts' name recognition inflates the betting line, but his actual usage doesn’t justify a receiving yard total this high.


Monday Night Football Preview

The first of two Monday Night Football games features the Titans and Dolphins. Munaf Manji (34:57 - 36:17) introduces this matchup, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding both teams' quarterback situations. With Skyler Thompson likely sidelined due to injury, the Dolphins are expected to start Tyler Huntley, while the Titans continue to struggle with Will Levis under center. Munaf and the co-hosts predict a low-scoring game, with both offenses playing conservatively to minimize mistakes. The Dolphins’ defense has shown flashes of excellence, while the Titans will look to rely on their ground game to control the clock.

Steve Reeder (38:32 - 40:09) agrees with Munaf, predicting a slow-paced, low-scoring game. He notes that Tennessee will likely lean on its defense and try to limit turnovers by keeping the ball on the ground. Steve adds that Huntley, new to the Dolphins’ system, will likely struggle to find rhythm in the passing game, forcing Miami to play conservatively. He anticipates a grind-it-out type of game, with both teams focusing on field position and controlling the pace.

The second Monday Night Football game is between the Seahawks and Lions. Steve Reeder (41:46 - 43:20) bets on the Lions, despite injury concerns. He highlights injuries to Detroit’s starting center Frank Ragnow and key offensive players like Sam Laporta, but still sees value in the Lions as 3.5-point favorites. Steve points out that the Seahawks haven’t faced stiff competition so far, having played against Bo Nix, Jacoby Preset, and Skyler Thompson. He expects the Lions’ offense, despite its injuries, to present the toughest test yet for the Seahawks defense.

Munaf Manji (43:21 - 45:01) agrees with Steve and sees this as a proving ground for Seattle. He notes that the Seahawks have built their 3-0 record on the backs of subpar teams, and this matchup against the Lions will show whether they are a legitimate contender. Munaf also believes the Lions will bounce back offensively, especially playing at home, where they have traditionally performed well.


Best Bet of the Week

The group selects Jackson Smith-Njigba over 48.5 receiving yards as their best player prop bet for Week 4. Munaf Manji (49:11 - 49:30) highlights how slot receivers have consistently torched the Lions’ defense this season. He points to past performances from players like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, who each had big games against Detroit. Munaf believes that Smith-Njigba, who plays primarily in the slot, will see plenty of targets and should have a breakout game against a vulnerable Lions secondary.

Steve Reeder (49:11 - 49:30) and SleepyJ agree with Munaf’s pick, noting that the Seahawks’ offense will likely lean on Smith-Njigba in this matchup. The Lions have struggled to contain slot receivers, and the Seahawks will look to exploit this weakness in their passing game. The group is confident that Smith-Njigba will surpass his yardage total, making this their best bet for Week 4.


Conclusion

The podcast concludes with SleepyJ offering listeners a discount code for pregame.com, and the hosts provide well-wishes to those in the path of the Florida hurricane. They wrap up by discussing their excitement for Week 4 of the NFL and hint at more betting opportunities in the coming weeks. The episode ends with a light-hearted conversation about Steve’s optimism for the Giants, despite their 1-2 record.

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