In Week 4 of the NFL season, Steve Fezzik and Munaf Manji broke down several games in which the final scores did not truly reflect the level of play on the field. These "phony final" scores often happen when unusual plays or key moments significantly affect the outcome, despite one team generally outperforming the other. Fezzik, renowned for his sharp analysis, delves into specific matchups, highlighting games where the scorelines misled fans and bettors alike. This detailed review offers insights into player performances, team dynamics, and betting outcomes, providing critical takeaways for fans and bettors who want to make smarter decisions.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (00:02)

Speaker: Steve Fezzik

Steve Fezzik starts his analysis with the Atlanta Falcons’ 2-point victory over the New Orleans Saints. Despite securing the win, the Falcons failed to cover the spread, which fluctuated between -2.5 and -3 points throughout the week. Fezzik draws attention to two unusual plays that gave the Falcons their victory: one being a freak pick-six, where the ball was deflected about 20 feet into the air before being caught and returned for a touchdown, and the other being a quirky recovery in the end zone. Such rare events, Fezzik notes, do not accurately represent the Falcons’ overall level of play.

The Saints, meanwhile, played a more consistent game, and if not for the two freakish touchdowns, could have won or at least made it a closer contest. Fezzik concludes that despite the win, the Falcons are due for a downgrade, as their victory was more about luck than skill. On the flip side, the Saints, who were on the receiving end of these anomalous plays, should be upgraded, as their overall performance was solid, even in defeat.

The takeaway here is clear: bettors and fans should look beyond the score and consider how teams achieved their points. In this case, the Falcons were fortunate, and while the win counts in the standings, it doesn’t reflect their true form.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (02:08)

Speaker: Steve Fezzik

Fezzik next examines the Minnesota Vikings’ dominant performance over the Green Bay Packers, a game in which Minnesota surged to a commanding 28-0 lead early on. Green Bay managed to make a late push, but by then the game was out of reach. Fezzik shares an interesting anecdote about a look-ahead line he had placed before the game, betting on Green Bay as a slight underdog (+2) when there was uncertainty surrounding the status of quarterback Jordan Love. When Love was confirmed to play, the line shifted, and Fezzik’s bet turned into a push, highlighting how difficult it is to predict NFL outcomes with so many moving parts.

Fezzik’s overall assessment of the game is that Green Bay deserves a downgrade, as they failed to capitalize on key opportunities and allowed Minnesota to take control early. While Love did manage a late comeback, it was too little, too late.

On the other hand, Minnesota earns an upgrade for their impressive performance. Led by key players like Aaron Jones, who made his return to Lambeau Field, and the ever-reliable Justin Jefferson, the Vikings controlled the game from start to finish. Sam Darnold’s contributions also helped solidify their offensive dominance. Fezzik points out that Minnesota's strong start to the season, now sitting at 4-0, makes them a force to be reckoned with, and their ability to put away teams early is a key reason for their rise.

This game serves as a reminder of how critical momentum is in the NFL. Minnesota’s early 28-0 lead was enough to crush Green Bay’s hopes, and while the Packers made a valiant effort to close the gap, the game was essentially decided by halftime.

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams (04:05)

Speaker: Steve Fezzik

Fezzik wraps up his Week 4 analysis by looking at the Chicago Bears’ 6-point victory over the Los Angeles Rams. According to Fezzik, this game was a prime example of a phony final. The Bears were outgained by 60 yards overall and by 0.7 yards per play, but they managed to win thanks to a few key bounces and timely plays that went their way. From Fezzik’s perspective, the Rams outplayed the Bears for much of the game, but luck favored Chicago at crucial moments.

Fezzik categorizes this game as a phony final because, statistically, the Rams should have won or at least been more competitive. Deandre Swift, who had been quiet in the first three weeks of the season, finally had a breakout game, providing a spark for Chicago’s previously anemic running game. Swift’s performance was crucial, but Fezzik emphasizes that the Bears’ overall performance wasn’t as impressive as the final score suggests.

Despite their win, Chicago’s downgrade is warranted, as the game could easily have gone the other way if the ball had bounced differently. For the Rams, Fezzik suggests that their play should not be discounted just because they lost. Outgaining the Bears and controlling large portions of the game indicates that their performance was stronger than the final score reflects.

This game illustrates the importance of digging deeper into the statistics when analyzing NFL games. Just because a team wins doesn’t mean they played better, and in this case, the Bears were the beneficiaries of good fortune more than skill.

Key Player Statistics and Analysis

Several key players stood out in Week 4, contributing to their team’s success or failure:

• Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings): Jones returned to Lambeau Field and made an immediate impact on the Vikings’ offense. His presence added a dynamic element to the team, helping them control the tempo of the game and dominate early. His performance was one of the main reasons Minnesota earned an upgrade.

• Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers): Love returned to action in Week 4 and led a late-game push for Green Bay, but his efforts were not enough to prevent the team’s loss. Despite his potential, Love’s inconsistency, particularly in the first half, contributed to Green Bay falling too far behind. Fezzik’s downgrade for the Packers reflects Love’s inability to make a significant impact when it mattered most.

• Deandre Swift (Chicago Bears): Swift finally had his breakout game in Week 4, contributing heavily to the Bears’ victory over the Rams. His running was a crucial factor in Chicago’s success, especially after three weeks of underwhelming performances. However, despite Swift’s success, Fezzik remains cautious about the Bears overall, as they were outplayed in many other aspects of the game.

Key Team Insights

In addition to player performances, team dynamics played a significant role in Week 4’s phony finals. Here are some of the key takeaways:

• Atlanta Falcons: Despite winning the game, the Falcons failed to cover the spread and relied on two freakish touchdowns to secure their victory. Fezzik believes that their win does not reflect the team’s true abilities, and they should be downgraded moving forward. The Falcons’ reliance on luck in this game is a warning sign for future matchups.

• New Orleans Saints: Even though the Saints lost, their overall performance was strong enough to warrant an upgrade. Fezzik points out that they were unlucky to lose, given the strange plays that led to Atlanta’s touchdowns. The Saints’ defense, in particular, held up well for much of the game, and they should not be overlooked despite the loss.

• Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings continue to impress, with a dominant victory over Green Bay showcasing their offensive and defensive strengths. Their 4-0 record highlights their rise as one of the top teams in the league, and their ability to control games early sets them apart. Fezzik’s upgrade for Minnesota is well-deserved, as they continue to perform at a high level.

• Green Bay Packers: The Packers’ inconsistency cost them in Week 4. While Jordan Love showed flashes of brilliance in the second half, the team’s inability to keep pace with Minnesota early in the game ultimately led to their loss. Fezzik recommends a downgrade for Green Bay, as their performance was not up to par, especially considering their talent.

• Chicago Bears: Chicago’s win over the Rams was more about luck than skill. While Deandre Swift’s breakout performance was a positive, the Bears were outgained and outplayed for much of the game. Fezzik’s downgrade reflects the reality that the Bears were fortunate to come away with a win.

Conclusion

Week 4 of the NFL season provided several phony final scores, where the results on the scoreboard did not accurately reflect the performances on the field. The Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears were beneficiaries of luck and unusual plays, leading Fezzik to downgrade them despite their victories. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints earned upgrades for their impressive play, even though one of them lost. Green Bay, on the other hand, continues to struggle with inconsistency, and their reliance on late-game surges is not sustainable in the long run. Fezzik’s analysis highlights the importance of looking beyond the final score to truly understand which teams are trending in the right direction.