As Week 3 of the NFL season came to a close, the landscape of the league began to shift, with surprises, disappointments, and key takeaways that will undoubtedly influence both upcoming games and betting strategies. This comprehensive recap, featuring insights from sports betting experts, breaks down team performances, critical moments, and betting angles, giving fans and bettors a thorough understanding of what transpired and what to expect moving forward.

In this article, we’ll explore notable team and player performances, discuss in-game betting trends, and provide a preview of Week 4, all while diving into advanced statistics and projections that can guide betting decisions. Let’s take a deep dive into the highs and lows of NFL Week 3 and explore the key narratives shaping the season.

Monday Night Football Breakdown: Buffalo’s Dominance and Jacksonville’s Struggles

Monday Night Football provided a clear narrative: the Buffalo Bills are a force to be reckoned with, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are in serious trouble. Buffalo’s 28-10 win over Jacksonville highlighted just how far apart these two teams are. [Steve Fezzik] (2:47), a two-time super contest champion, pointed out that “Buffalo is better than we expected, and Jacksonville got smashed all game long.”

From a statistical standpoint, Buffalo’s dominance was clear. The Bills racked up over 400 yards of total offense, while Jacksonville’s defense looked lost, allowing Buffalo to convert 60% of third downs. Jacksonville’s offense, meanwhile, managed only 13 first downs and was held to just 200 yards.

Buffalo’s defense played a critical role in the victory, and [RJ Bell] (3:14) highlighted the importance of understanding team motivation. “Teams like Buffalo are playing with higher expectations, and that drives their performance,” he explained. In contrast, Jacksonville, a team with low preseason expectations, lacked the urgency to compete against a superior opponent.

Cincinnati Bengals’ Slow Start and Betting Adjustments

One of the biggest storylines emerging from Week 3 is the dismal start of the Cincinnati Bengals. After being projected as potential playoff contenders, the Bengals now find themselves in a 1-2 hole. According to [Steve Fezzik] (4:30), “Cincinnati has already burned through two of their three last-place matchups and lost both.” The Bengals’ weak schedule, combined with their poor performances, has led to significant downgrades in their power rating.

Fezzik went on to lower Cincinnati by 1.5 points, citing their struggles against bottom-tier teams like Washington and New England. [RJ Bell] (5:04) emphasized the importance of considering a team’s strength of schedule when analyzing their record. He noted that “the Bengals’ opponents had an average preseason win total of just 7.5, meaning Cincinnati should have been able to dominate.”

Despite the early setbacks, Cincinnati still has an opportunity to turn their season around, but their upcoming game against Carolina will be a critical test. Bettors should proceed with caution, as the Bengals are clearly not living up to preseason expectations.

Washington’s Surprise Rise and Betting Implications

While Cincinnati’s struggles have dominated headlines, Washington has quietly been one of the biggest surprises of the season. [RJ Bell] (23:38) noted that “Washington deserves an upgrade after their strong Week 3 showing.” The team has exceeded expectations and is now a legitimate threat in the NFC East.

Washington’s defense has been particularly impressive, holding opponents to an average of just 17 points per game. Their Week 3 performance demonstrated their ability to win games, even when their offense isn’t firing on all cylinders. This defensive strength, combined with smart play-calling, has led to an improvement in their overall power rating, making them a team to watch for in upcoming weeks.

Understanding In-Season NFL Win Totals

A key component of the panel’s analysis centered around in-season NFL win totals. [Steve Fezzik] (23:39) shared his approach to betting on these win totals, explaining how he calculates “win share” based on the likelihood of teams winning each game. By calculating the probability of a team winning any given matchup, Fezzik is able to spot opportunities where teams may be overvalued or undervalued by the betting markets.

For example, Fezzik pointed out that Cincinnati had an 80% chance of winning their Week 1 game and a 40% chance of winning Week 2, yet they underperformed in both contests. As a result, the Bengals' projected win total has dropped, and savvy bettors are already targeting the under.

Fezzik’s method involves identifying when bookmakers fail to adjust their win totals properly, allowing bettors to capitalize on mispriced lines. This strategy is particularly useful in the early weeks of the season when teams’ true strengths and weaknesses are still being revealed.

San Francisco 49ers’ Injury Woes and Resilience

Injuries have plagued many teams through Week 3, but few have been hit harder than the San Francisco 49ers. Despite losing key offensive weapons like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle, the 49ers have remained competitive, and [Steve Fezzik] (24:00) credited this to the team’s resilience. “The Niners should have won their game against the Rams 26-19, despite all their injuries,” Fezzik noted.

The 49ers’ ability to stay in games, even without their top playmakers, speaks volumes about the team’s depth and coaching. [RJ Bell] (20:52) praised quarterback Brock Purdy for stepping up in the absence of Samuel and McCaffrey, noting that “Purdy looked better than ever, showing poise and leadership.”

While San Francisco suffered a close loss to the Rams, their overall performance suggests that they should not be downgraded too heavily. Injuries are part of the game, and the 49ers have proven that they can remain competitive even with a depleted roster.

Aggressive Fourth Down Calls: Are Teams Overdoing It?

The trend of teams going for it on fourth down has been a hot topic in NFL circles, and Week 3 provided more examples of aggressive decision-making. [RJ Bell] (49:07) criticized the Philadelphia Eagles’ decision to go for it on fourth down instead of taking the points. He explained how the “pendulum has swung too far toward aggression on fourth down,” resulting in missed opportunities.

[Steve Fezzik] (49:23) agreed, pointing out that “teams are now game-planning for these aggressive fourth-down calls, making them less effective.” What was once considered an innovative strategy has become predictable, and teams are adjusting their defenses accordingly.

This trend has significant implications for betting, as teams that consistently go for it on fourth down may leave points on the board, leading to unpredictable outcomes. Bettors need to be aware of these tendencies when analyzing matchups, as aggressive play-calling can swing games in unexpected ways.

ATS Trends: Betting Against the Spread in Week 4

One of the most interesting discussions from Week 3 centered around ATS (Against the Spread) trends. [Steve Fezzik] (58:03) shared a statistic that is sure to catch the attention of bettors: “Teams that exceed ATS margin by 50 or more points through the first three weeks are 3-13 ATS in their next game.” This trend applies to both the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings, who have dominated early in the season but are now set to face tougher competition.

Fezzik explained that teams that dominate early often see inflated lines, making them more vulnerable to a letdown. The Bills and Vikings, for example, have both exceeded expectations, with the Vikings surpassing the ATS margin by nearly 60 points—the sixth-highest margin in 35 years.

This trend suggests that both Buffalo and Minnesota may struggle to cover the spread in Week 4, making them risky bets for those looking to capitalize on early-season dominance.

The Rams’ Gutsy Comeback and Coaching Prowess

Despite their early struggles, the Los Angeles Rams pulled off a gutsy comeback against the San Francisco 49ers, earning praise from the panel. [RJ Bell] (22:12) commended Rams coach Sean McVay for his ability to “rally the team and secure a victory,” noting that McVay’s coaching played a crucial role in turning the game around.

The Rams have dealt with numerous injuries, particularly along the offensive line, but McVay’s adaptability and leadership have kept the team competitive. The Rams earned a slight upgrade in their power rating following their Week 3 win, and bettors should keep an eye on how they perform in the coming weeks.

Dallas Cowboys’ Defensive Woes

The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the most disappointing teams through the first three weeks of the season, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. [Scott Seidenberg] (1:03:39) pointed out that “Dallas has been run over two weeks in a row,” with Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry both posting huge performances against the Cowboys' defense.

[Steve Fezzik] (1:06:45) responded by lowering the Cowboys’ power rating by a full point, explaining that “the Cowboys' inability to stop the run is becoming a major problem.” This defensive weakness will continue to be exploited by opponents, and bettors should be wary of placing too much faith in Dallas until they can address their defensive struggles.

Fezzik also discussed how the Cowboys’ projected win total has been adjusted downward, with most sportsbooks now setting it at under nine wins. Unless Dallas can improve their run defense, they are likely to underperform for the remainder of the season.

Minnesota Vikings: Betting Trends and Predictions

The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most surprising teams of the early season, starting 3-0 and exceeding expectations in every game. [Steve Fezzik] (58:59) highlighted that “the Vikings have exceeded ATS expectations by 59.5 points, the sixth-highest margin in 35 years.” However, this early success has inflated their lines, making them vulnerable to a letdown in Week 4.

The Vikings' dominance has been impressive, but the panel warned that teams with such early success often fail to cover in subsequent weeks. Fezzik noted that the Vikings face a tough matchup against Green Bay, and bettors should be cautious about backing Minnesota given the historical trends.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways and Betting Strategies for Week 4

As we move into Week 4, several key themes have emerged from Week 3. Cincinnati’s struggles are a major concern, while Washington has exceeded expectations and earned an upgrade. The aggressive fourth-down trend continues to affect outcomes, and teams like Buffalo and Minnesota may be due for a letdown after dominating early in the season.

Bettors should pay close attention to in-season win totals, ATS trends, and team adjustments based on injuries and performance. Week 4 promises to bring more surprises, and savvy bettors will need to stay ahead of the curve by analyzing key metrics and understanding how early-season results can impact the betting landscape moving forward.