In this edition of Monday Morning QB, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers deliver a comprehensive breakdown of NFL Week 3, focusing on the success of underdogs, controversial coaching decisions, and standout player performances. The episode also provides betting insights for the upcoming Monday Night Football matchups and highlights the final week of Major League Baseball’s regular season, particularly the playoff races in the NL West and NL East.

Underdogs Dominate NFL Week 3

(01:39) Scott Seidenberg: One of the key themes discussed was the dominance of underdogs in the 2024 NFL season. In the first three weeks, underdogs receiving six or more points have gone 11-1 against the spread (ATS), securing seven outright wins. Seidenberg pointed out that betting on large underdogs has been extremely profitable, with a $100 bettor up $1,452 so far this season. Rivers emphasized that this trend is indicative of the NFL's parity, where even teams with significant point spreads can compete at a high level.

This trend can be attributed to several factors. First, the unpredictability of the early season, where teams are still adjusting after limited preseason action, often results in surprise outcomes. Additionally, offenses across the league have struggled, which helps keep games closer and allows underdogs to cover the spread. Seidenberg noted that the only ATS loss for a large underdog came from the New England Patriots, who faced a difficult Thursday Night Football game with minimal preparation.

Falcons vs. Chiefs: Coaching Decisions in the Spotlight

(04:51) Scott Seidenberg: The Falcons' 22-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs was a major talking point, particularly focusing on coaching decisions that may have cost Atlanta the game. The Falcons had an opportunity to close the gap late in the game, but coach Raheem Morris opted to go for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal. Seidenberg criticized this decision, arguing that taking the easy points would have put the Falcons within two, giving them a better chance to win.

(05:52) Mackenzie Rivers: Morris justified his decision by citing a fear of giving Patrick Mahomes too much time to orchestrate a game-winning drive. However, with four clock stoppages remaining—including the two-minute warning—Seidenberg and Rivers both agreed that the Falcons could have trusted their defense to stop Mahomes. Rivers pointed out that Atlanta’s defense had performed well, and giving up a couple of first downs wouldn’t have necessarily ended the game.

The Falcons' failure to convert on fourth down handed the ball back to Kansas City, and Mahomes, though held in check, was able to close out the game. Adding to Atlanta’s frustration was a controversial missed pass interference call. Kyle Pitts appeared to be clearly interfered with on a critical play, but no flag was thrown. Seidenberg expressed disbelief at the missed call, while Rivers lamented the inconsistency in officiating, particularly in high-stakes moments like this one.

Circa Survivor and Bengals Betting Preview

(03:38) Scott Seidenberg: The Monday Night Football doubleheader between the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders was another key focus. The Bengals entered the game as 7.5-point favorites, and much was riding on the outcome for those participating in the Circa Survivor contest. Over 25% of the remaining contestants had picked the Bengals to win, making this a crucial game for their survival in the contest.

(02:27) Mackenzie Rivers: Despite the Bengals being favored, Rivers warned against confidently betting on them, citing the volatility of the early season and the strong performance of underdogs so far. He called it a "brave" move to lay 7.5 points, especially with the Commanders showing flashes of competitiveness in previous weeks. Seidenberg and Rivers both emphasized the unpredictability of such games, especially when high spreads are involved.

Additionally, Seidenberg recommended a best bet for the game: Bengals quarterback Jaden Daniels to exceed 48.5 rushing yards. Drawing parallels to Lamar Jackson, Seidenberg believed Daniels would use his legs to make plays on the big Monday night stage, especially after a previous week where his rushing stats were kept low.

Eagles vs. Saints: Sirianni's Risky Decisions

(19:46) Scott Seidenberg: The Philadelphia Eagles’ 15-12 win over the New Orleans Saints drew attention not because of the final score but because of the coaching decisions made by Nick Sirianni. Throughout the game, Sirianni repeatedly chose to go for it on fourth down instead of opting for easy field goals. Seidenberg blasted this approach, labeling some of the decisions as reckless, particularly one made just before halftime.

(16:39) Mackenzie Rivers: With 14 seconds left in the first half and the Eagles trailing 3-0, Sirianni decided to run the ball on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal that would have tied the game. Rivers argued that this decision made little sense, as the Eagles' defense had been playing well, and tying the game before halftime would have reset momentum. Seidenberg called the decision a “clown show” and suggested that Sirianni had unnecessarily put his team in a more difficult position.

The Eagles’ narrow win was salvaged by outstanding performances from Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert. Barkley rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns, while Goedert made several clutch catches, including a fingertip grab on third-and-16 that kept the Eagles’ hopes alive. While Philadelphia escaped with a win, Seidenberg expressed concern that Sirianni’s decision-making could cost the team in closer games down the road.

Patrick Mahomes and the “Bad Beat”

(15:34) Scott Seidenberg: Patrick Mahomes’ rushing yard total in the game against the Falcons became a source of frustration for bettors, thanks to late-game kneel-downs that reduced his total from 30 rushing yards to 17. The over/under for Mahomes’ rushing yardage was set at 19.5, making this a classic "bad beat" scenario for those who had bet the over.

Seidenberg explained that Mahomes has developed a reputation for losing significant yardage on kneel-downs, often backing up several yards before going to the ground. Rivers joked that Mahomes is the “best kneeler of all time,” but for bettors, it was an unfortunate and costly outcome. Despite this quirky ending, Mahomes' overall performance was steady, helping the Chiefs secure a tough win over the Falcons.

Giants, Vikings, and Packers Stand Out

(26:11) Scott Seidenberg: Several teams had standout performances in Week 3, including the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers. The Giants picked up their first win of the season, defeating the Browns 21-15. Daniel Jones had a strong game, completing 24 of 34 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Rookie wide receiver Malik Nabors also made history, becoming the first player in NFL history to record 20 receptions, 250 yards, and three touchdowns in his first three games.

(33:34) Mackenzie Rivers: The Minnesota Vikings also delivered an impressive performance, defeating the Houston Texans 34-7. The Vikings’ defense, led by Brian Flores, completely shut down the Texans’ offense, limiting C.J. Stroud to just 215 passing yards and two interceptions. Rivers praised Flores for his defensive scheme, which effectively neutralized the Shanahan-style offense employed by Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick.

(27:42) Scott Seidenberg: The Green Bay Packers cruised to a 30-14 victory over the Tennessee Titans, with Jair Alexander recording his first career pick-six. Will Levis continued to struggle at quarterback for the Titans, throwing a costly interception that Alexander returned for a touchdown. Seidenberg questioned why the Titans hadn’t benched Levis yet, arguing that the team needed to explore other options at quarterback if they wanted to turn their season around.

The Importance of Coaching Roles and Specialization

(24:18) Mackenzie Rivers: Seidenberg and Rivers also debated the role of head coaches in the NFL and whether some coaches take on too much responsibility. Rivers argued that many head coaches, particularly those who still act as coordinators, may struggle to effectively manage game situations while also overseeing offensive or defensive play-calling. Raheem Morris, for example, still operates heavily as a defensive coordinator, which may have impacted his game management decisions in the Falcons' loss to the Chiefs.

Seidenberg highlighted the importance of delegating responsibilities, noting that successful head coaches often allow their coordinators to handle specific duties so they can focus on managing the overall flow of the game. He cited examples like Bill Belichick, who, while historically a defensive mastermind, has evolved into more of a game manager, overseeing the team while trusting his coordinators to execute specific strategies.

MLB Playoff Races: Final Week Preview

(52:27) Scott Seidenberg: The episode wrapped up with a preview of the final week of Major League Baseball’s regular season. The focus was primarily on the NL West, where the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres were locked in a tight race for the division title. The Dodgers held a three-game lead over the Padres, and the two teams were set to face off in a crucial series that could determine the division champion. If the Padres managed to sweep the Dodgers, the two teams would be tied for the lead heading into the final series of the season.

In the NL East, the playoff race was similarly intense. The New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Atlanta Braves were all vying for wild card spots, with the Braves needing to win two of three games against the Mets to secure a playoff berth. Seidenberg noted that while the Mets had a slight edge, the Braves had an opportunity to turn the tables if they could win the series and claim the season tiebreaker.

Seidenberg also briefly touched on the American League, where the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers were fighting for a playoff spot. The Tigers, in particular, were seen as one of the best stories of the season, as they had defied expectations and remained in contention despite a challenging season.

Conclusion

The Monday Morning QB episode from September 23rd, 2024, provided an in-depth look at the key moments and trends from NFL Week 3, highlighting the success of underdogs, the impact of coaching decisions, and standout performances from players like Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones. The show also previewed the Monday Night Football matchups and offered insights into the final week of MLB’s regular season, where several playoff races remained undecided. With a blend of betting analysis, team breakdowns, and player spotlights, the episode delivered a thorough recap of a thrilling weekend in sports.