As Week 3 of the NFL season approaches, sports analyst Dave Essler has zeroed in on the Arizona Cardinals as his best bet for this week's matchups. With the Cardinals positioned as underdogs against the Detroit Lions, Essler provides a comprehensive breakdown of why he believes Arizona will cover the spread, if not win the game outright. By examining Jared Goff’s inconsistency, Arizona’s defensive strength, Kyler Murray’s mobility, and the Lions' struggle against mobile quarterbacks, Essler builds a compelling case for betting on the Cardinals.

In this in-depth analysis, we’ll cover Essler’s observations and reasoning while also looking at the key players and team statistics that will likely determine the outcome of this pivotal game. We’ll also explore historical trends and matchups that further support Essler’s pick. Whether you're a betting enthusiast or a football fan looking to gain deeper insights into Week 3, this article will break down the finer details of why Arizona may have the upper hand against Detroit.

Jared Goff: The Key to Detroit’s Success (00:00 - 00:27)

Essler starts his analysis by focusing on the Lions’ quarterback, Jared Goff, whose performance has often dictated the success of his teams. During his time with the Rams, Goff boasted a higher passer rating (QBR) than he currently does with the Lions. Essler reminds us that Detroit was prematurely placed on Super Bowl watch after last season’s near-success. However, as Essler points out, many were quick to jump on the Lions bandwagon, perhaps without fully considering Goff’s track record of inconsistency.

A key insight from Essler is that Goff’s performance essentially drives the team’s success or failure. While the Lions have improved their roster and have plenty of talent at the skill positions, Goff remains the linchpin. How he plays in critical moments will largely determine whether the Lions can keep their winning momentum or crumble under pressure.

Goff’s Boom-or-Bust Performance (00:28 - 00:43)

Essler then presents a stark comparison between Goff’s performance in games he has won versus games he has lost. Goff has 67 career wins under his belt, during which he has thrown an impressive 130 touchdowns with just 30 interceptions. These numbers show that when Goff is on, he’s one of the more productive quarterbacks in the NFL. But in his 51 losses, Goff has thrown 56 touchdowns and 55 interceptions—nearly a 1:1 ratio. This stat alone underscores how fragile Detroit’s success can be when Goff is off his game.

What does this tell us? Goff is a high-variance player. He’s either going to lead the Lions to victory with efficient, mistake-free football, or he’ll struggle with turnovers and poor decision-making. Betting on the Lions, therefore, means betting on which version of Goff will show up on game day. Essler clearly believes there’s enough inconsistency in Goff’s play to make Arizona a solid underdog bet.

Arizona’s Defensive Strength (00:44 - 01:53)

Next, Essler turns his attention to Arizona’s defense, which has quietly put up strong performances against some of the NFL’s best offenses. For instance, the Cardinals held the Buffalo Bills—a top-tier offense—to just 350 yards of total offense. To put this in perspective, the Bills are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, and their offense later dominated the Miami Dolphins, underscoring how well Arizona’s defense performed in that game.

Additionally, Essler points out that Arizona held the Los Angeles Rams to only 245 yards, another feat considering the Rams' explosive potential. What’s most striking about these defensive performances is that they came against teams with strong passing attacks, which is a direct indicator of how the Cardinals may fare against Goff and the Lions. If Arizona can contain Buffalo and Los Angeles, there’s every reason to believe they can do the same against Detroit, a team that has yet to prove itself among the NFL’s elite.

Arizona’s Defensive Stats That Matter:

• Buffalo Bills Game: Arizona limited the Bills to just 350 yards of offense, a significant achievement against one of the league’s top offenses.
• Los Angeles Rams Game: Arizona held the Rams to 245 total yards, showcasing their defensive consistency.

These performances bolster Essler’s argument that Arizona’s defense is more than capable of keeping the Lions’ offense in check, especially if Goff struggles as he has in previous losses.

Detroit’s Vulnerability Against Mobile Quarterbacks

One of the more intriguing points Essler makes is about Detroit’s difficulty in defending mobile quarterbacks. He lists a number of quarterbacks who defeated the Lions last season—Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, and Geno Smith—all of whom are known for their ability to extend plays with their legs. This is a crucial insight because it highlights a specific defensive weakness in Detroit’s scheme: the inability to effectively contain quarterbacks who can both run and throw.

Essler then points out that Arizona’s Kyler Murray is exactly that type of quarterback. Murray’s mobility presents a significant challenge for Detroit’s defense, as they will be forced to account for his ability to scramble outside the pocket. This not only opens up opportunities for big plays downfield but also forces defensive linemen and linebackers to stay disciplined, which could leave gaps in coverage or running lanes for Murray to exploit.

The bottom line is that Detroit has historically struggled against quarterbacks with the kind of athleticism Murray brings to the table. If Murray can effectively leverage his dual-threat capabilities, it will be difficult for the Lions to contain Arizona’s offense.

The Kyler Murray Factor

Kyler Murray is the engine that drives Arizona’s offense. His ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs is what makes him so dangerous, and in this matchup against Detroit, his skill set could be the difference-maker. Essler places a heavy emphasis on Murray’s mobility, which could exploit Detroit’s defensive weakness against running quarterbacks. But Murray’s impact goes beyond just scrambling. His mobility often buys him extra time in the pocket, allowing receivers to break free from coverage, which in turn leads to big passing plays.

Furthermore, Murray’s presence forces defenses to play more conservatively. Defensive coordinators have to account for the possibility of Murray taking off at any time, which limits the kinds of aggressive blitz packages they can call. This could lead to a less effective pass rush from Detroit, giving Murray more time to make decisions and find open receivers downfield.

Arizona’s Upset Potential: Historical Trends (01:54 - 02:30)

Essler doesn’t just focus on the here and now; he also draws a comparison to last season when Arizona pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year. In Week 2 of the 2023 season, the Cardinals were 11.5-point underdogs at home against the Dallas Cowboys. Despite being heavy underdogs, the Cardinals won the game outright, sending shockwaves through the betting community.

Essler uses this example to illustrate that Arizona has the potential to surprise, especially when they are being overlooked. Even though the Cardinals’ roster has seen changes—such as the departure of Josh Dobbs and the arrival of Marvin Harrison—Essler believes Arizona retains the same underdog mentality that fueled their success last year.

This history of pulling off upsets, combined with the matchup-specific advantages Arizona has over Detroit, makes the Cardinals a dangerous team to bet against. According to Essler, this game has all the hallmarks of another Arizona upset.

Why Arizona +3 is a Smart Bet

In wrapping up his analysis, Essler concludes that Arizona plus three points is the best bet for Week 3. His reasoning is backed by a blend of statistical analysis, historical context, and matchup-based insights. Jared Goff’s inconsistency is a major red flag for Detroit, particularly when you consider how poorly he performs in games where he’s under pressure or the team is trailing. Additionally, Detroit’s defense has shown a vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks, which plays directly into Kyler Murray’s strengths as a dual-threat quarterback.

On the other side, Arizona’s defense has proven itself capable of limiting even the best offenses in the league, as seen in their performances against Buffalo and the Rams. Essler sees this as a critical factor in keeping the game close, even if the Cardinals don’t pull off the outright win. By taking Arizona plus three, bettors are hedging against Goff’s inconsistency while banking on Arizona’s defense and Kyler Murray’s mobility to make enough plays to cover the spread.

The Final Prediction

Based on Dave Essler’s analysis, the Arizona Cardinals are poised to cover the spread, with a strong possibility of pulling off an outright win against the Detroit Lions. Goff’s inconsistency, paired with Detroit’s struggles against mobile quarterbacks, makes Arizona a live underdog in this matchup. With Kyler Murray’s dual-threat capabilities and Arizona’s ability to stifle high-powered offenses, the Cardinals are in an excellent position to keep the game close, if not come away with a win.

Betting on Arizona plus three is not just about trusting the underdog; it’s about recognizing the statistical and historical factors that suggest Arizona will exploit Detroit’s weaknesses and challenge their offense. Whether you’re a casual bettor or a seasoned pro, Essler’s detailed breakdown offers valuable insights into why Arizona is the best bet for NFL Week 3.

Key Points Recap:

 Jared Goff’s Inconsistencies: Goff has a nearly 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in games he loses, making him a high-risk player.

 Detroit’s Struggles with Mobile QBs: The Lions have consistently struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, a key advantage for Arizona’s Kyler Murray.

 Arizona’s Defensive Strength: The Cardinals have limited high-powered offenses like Buffalo and the Rams, proving their ability to stifle top-tier offenses.

 Kyler Murray’s Dual-Threat Capability: Murray’s ability to both pass and run makes him a difficult quarterback for the Lions to defend against.

 Arizona’s Upset Potential: Historical trends show that Arizona thrives in underdog situations, as evidenced by their upset of the Cowboys last season.

 Betting on Arizona +3: Essler makes a strong case for Arizona covering the spread, citing Goff’s inconsistency and Arizona’s defensive resilience.

 Defensive Matchups: Arizona’s defense has already proven itself against some of the NFL’s best offenses, making them a tough challenge for Detroit.

 Murray’s Impact on the Game: Murray’s ability to extend plays and exploit gaps in Detroit’s defense could be the deciding factor in Arizona’s favor.

 Roster Changes Don’t Diminish Arizona’s Upside: Despite some roster changes, Arizona’s potential to upset remains high.

 Essler’s Confidence in Arizona: Essler confidently picks Arizona to cover the spread, based on both statistical trends and matchup-specific insights.

Summary

Dave Essler’s Week 3 NFL best bet focuses on the Arizona Cardinals as underdogs against the Detroit Lions. He highlights Jared Goff’s inconsistency, Detroit’s struggles against mobile quarterbacks, and Arizona’s strong defensive performances against top offenses. Essler predicts that Arizona, led by Kyler Murray’s dual-threat ability, will keep the game close and may even pull off an outright win, making Arizona +3 the smart bet for Week 3.