NFL Week 11 Player Props and Monday Night Football Preview

Introduction

Week 11 of the NFL season brings an array of exciting matchups, player prop bets, and strategic opportunities for bettors and fantasy football enthusiasts. Hosts Munaf Manji and Steve Reider dissect key trends and statistics, providing actionable insights into quarterback, running back, and wide receiver performances. Additionally, the Monday Night Football game between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys is previewed with a focus on player props and team dynamics.

Quarterback Prop Analysis

Will Levis Interception Prop

Will Levis has thrown interceptions in five of his six games this season, averaging over one per game. His matchup against the Minnesota Vikings is challenging, as Minnesota leads the NFL with 15 interceptions. Brian Flores’ defensive scheme is particularly effective at confusing young quarterbacks with pre-snap looks, which often lead to post-snap mistakes. Levis’ risk-taking tendencies make him a likely candidate to throw an interception this week.

Bo Nix Passing Yards Prop

Bo Nix is projected to exceed 211 passing yards against the Atlanta Falcons, whose defense has allowed an average of 280 passing yards over the past three games. Playing in a dome removes weather variables, and Nix’s recent performance trends (three straight games surpassing this yardage) suggest continued success.

Running Back Prop Insights

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop

Jonathan Taylor has consistently exceeded expectations, averaging five yards per carry in his last six games and eclipsing 88 rushing yards in three of his last four outings. Facing the New York Jets, who rank 7th worst in rush EPA, Taylor is set to thrive.

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop

Christian McCaffrey has a history of success against the Seattle Seahawks, averaging six yards per carry and exceeding 100 yards in three of his last five games against them. Seattle’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 123 rushing yards per game, making McCaffrey a strong candidate to surpass 79.5 rushing yards.

Audric Estime Rushing Yards Prop

As Denver’s featured back, Audric Estime is poised to exceed 57.5 rushing yards against Atlanta’s average run defense. Estime’s high usage (82% of carries) and Atlanta’s allowance of 129 rushing yards per game make this a favorable prop.

Wide Receiver Prop Analysis

Travis Kelsey Receptions Prop

Travis Kelsey’s target share has remained dominant, with at least seven receptions in five of his last six games. Injuries to Buffalo’s linebacker unit further enhance Kelsey’s chances to capitalize on his over 6.5 receptions prop, as he serves as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to option in critical matchups.

Calvin Ridley Receiving Yards Prop

Post-DeAndre Hopkins trade, Calvin Ridley has become Tennessee’s primary target. With 72+ receiving yards in his last three games and a favorable matchup against Minnesota’s defense, which has struggled against wide receivers, Ridley is projected to surpass 55.5 receiving yards.

Monday Night Football Preview: Texans vs. Cowboys

The Houston Texans are seven-and-a-half-point road favorites against a Dallas Cowboys team missing key players, including Dak Prescott and potentially CeeDee Lamb. Dallas’ backup quarterback, Cooper Rush, has struggled, and the team’s run defense ranks last in EPA per play.

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop

Joe Mixon, the Texans’ lead back, is set to thrive against Dallas’ poor run defense. With five 100+ yard games this season and a projected favorable game script, Mixon’s over 85.5 rushing yards prop is one of the strongest plays for Week 11.

NFL Scheduling Concerns

The hosts express frustration over the NFL’s decision to feature the Texans-Cowboys game in primetime, sidelining marquee matchups like Chiefs vs. Bills. They advocate for greater scheduling flexibility to showcase elite games in primetime slots.

Conclusion

NFL Week 11 offers rich opportunities for prop bets, with standout plays like Will Levis' interception, Christian McCaffrey's rushing yards, and Joe Mixon's dominance on the ground. The Texans-Cowboys game may lack primetime allure but holds significant betting value, particularly in player props. By focusing on data-driven insights and leveraging historical trends, bettors can approach Week 11 with confidence.