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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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    Yesterday - 4:05 PM

NFL Picks, Odds and Start Time for Bengals, Giants, Jaguars and 49ers

Cincinnati at Jacksonville (Odds -1-) Start Time 1:00 PM EST: Nobody in Cincinnati misses QB Palmer.  This year’s rookie QB Dalton has filled the void nicely in leading the Bengals to a 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS record.  Last week’s victory against upwardly mobile Buffalo was important to their continued improvement.  Scoring on the last play of the game for a 23-20 victory was the proper reward for dominating the Bills the entire game.  First downs were 25-12, the ground game was 171-83, and through the air it was 287-190.  It was a well-deserved victory.  Now, we call for them to break through on the road.  After losing their final 7 road games of 2010, they set precedence for this with a road victory at Cleveland in Week #1.  They can get another vs. a one dimensional Jacksonville team.  The Jags continue to insist on running the football.  But in their home field loss to New Orleans, they lost the chains 30-15, the trenches 177-104, and the clock 37-23.  In other words, the Saints beat them at their own game.  When the smoke cleared, the 23-10 loss could have been far worse based on their 503 yards allowed.  Rookie QB Gabbart and the slashes of RB MJD are not enough to overwhelm a Bengal defensive front allowing just 87/3.1.  NFL Free Picks: Until a Jags offense that averages just 10 PPG, 264 yards, and 4.5 YPPL (an NFL worst) proves to be more prolific, this 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS team is tough to back.

Seattle at NY Giants (Odds -9-) Start Time 1:00 PM EST: This is so square it just might work.   Very hard to make a case for the Seahawks.  In spite of the fact they rallied from 27-7 down to beat our top play with Atlanta last week, the stats clearly tell a different story.  The Falcons controlled the ball for over 40 minutes, outrushed Seattle 121-53, and were plus 2 in the turnover margin.  Yet, the Seahawks rallied behind the improbable passing of QB Jackson for the backdoor cover.  It is doubtful that happens this week.  To begin with, they are in the dreaded west to east travel scenario meaning they start this game at 10:00 AM body time.  This continues to be one of the league’s worst road teams.  Long term, they are 7-25 ATS in the role of non-division road dog.  They have failed to cover their last 5 regular season road games losing by a combined score of 169-62 with every defeat being by 15 or more points.  Fundamentally, they continue to struggle on offense with the young, rebuilt OL that has allowed 14 sacks, keys a ground game that averages just 68/3.4, and scores 15 PPG on 254 yards.  The Giants enter with great momentum on a 3-0 SU, ATS run with 2 of those 3 wins by 12 and 13 points.  The third, is the 31-27 comeback victory last week at Arizona in which they were shockingly outrushed 156-54.  That gives HC Coughlin plenty of fuel for their practices this week.  Before you take off the rubber-band, however, please note the G men are just 2-7 ATS HF -7 plus L2Y.  And, that their ground game, 88/3.3, is a shell of last year’s unit that averaged 137/4.6.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (Odds -3) Start Time 4:05 PM EST: Young coach, young team.  Yet, T Bay is a mysterious 9-2 SU, 10-0-1 ATS away of late.  But this is a tough situation for them traveling 3 hours east to west following an MNF win.  Far prefer an efficient Niner offense with 11.5 YPPT rating that is translating 271 YPG into 24 PPG.  Look no further than the fact they have won the battle of the turnovers every game for a cumulative plus 8 net TO margin tied for the best in the league.  HC Harbaugh must again be translating his infectious positive attitude to, not only QB Smith, but the entire team.  The result is 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS, the only team in the league who hasn’t lost to the spread.  Hidden number is a defensive front allowing just 74/3.5.  21-0 revenge from a loss on this field last year provides motivation for this emerging team.  Must shore up an OL that has allowed 14 sacks against a hard-charging T Bay front line.

Movie Free Picks: Chiefs at Colts - Best Bet from Vegas Runner
What NFL bettors need to know about Chiefs at Colts (Sunday, October 9, 2011) from - Including predictions from Bryan Leonard and analysis from host Bryan Leonard.