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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NFL Picks for Sunday in Jets at Raiders and Ravens at Rams

Joe Gavazzi has three free NFL picks for Sunday below on the Jets at Raiders, Ravens at Rams and Cardinals at Seahawks. Also, what NFL bettors need to know about Jets at Raiders with predictions from Stephen Nover and analysis from host Marco D'Angelo.

NY Jets (-3-) at Oakland 4:00 PM EST: 
Great matchup between the Raiders running game and the Jets rush defense.  3rd year Jets HC Ryan, of course, vows that he will shut it down.  His coaching success on the road tends to back that up.  His Jets are 12-6 ATS away of late.  In 2 years, he is 6-2 ATS RF.  After squeezing by Dallas in the opener, they used that defense to overwhelm a vanilla Jags offense for a 32-3 victory.  This will be a far greater challenge.  The Oakland running game emerged last season averaging 156 RYPG on 5.2 YPR.  It keyed an 8-8 SU, ATS season for the Raiders, their best in years.  Enter 1st year HC Jackson who is committed to that philosophy.  In road games at Denver and Buffalo, they ran it 69 times for 321 yards for 4.7 YPR.  Last week after dominating Buffalo in the 1st half 21-3, they finally realized they were playing at 10:00 AM body time.  They allowed the Bills to rush for 164 second half yards keying an eventual 38-35 Buffalo win.  Look for them to remain true to their rushing philosophy, play a full 60 minutes this week, and emerge with a narrow victory against the over-confident 2-0 SU Jets.

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis 4:00 PM EST: There is a clear sense of urgency for a St. Louis team that has started 0-2 SU, ATS by a combined 21 points vs. quality opponents Philly and NYG.  Of dire concern is a last in the NFL rush defense which through 2 games, has allowed 178 RYPG on 5.2 YPR.  With an offense that has averaged only 15 PPG, that is clearly a concern.  Injuries impacted their early season play but I am not playing the due factor here.  The Ravens are likely on an early season roller coaster.  Their huge energy output in avenging rival Pittsburgh 35-7 in the opener was met by a not so surprising letdown at Tennessee in Week #2.  They were outplayed in every phase of the game in losing 26-13.  Now look for the bounce!  Much like Week #1 when they outrushed the Steelers 170-66, they can use that strong running game against the weak St. Louis defensive front to gain control of the line of scrimmage and open up the passing lanes for prolific QB Flacco. 

Arizona (-3-) at Seattle 4:15 PM EST: Seattle has not gotten the best of a schedule that has seen them travel to San Francisco and Pittsburgh resulting in an expected 0-2 SU, ATS beginning in which they failed by 21 points ATS.  Their power rating took a serious hit with that loss to the Steelers in which they were outgained 421-164 by an angry Pittsburgh team.  Unproven QB Jackson operating behind a young OL is averaging a league low 48 RYPG on 2.7 YPR.  The pass game is inadequate as well resulting in just 9 PPG, 192 YPG, and 3.8 YPPL.  But nowhere in the NFL betting manual does it say that you want to play Arizona as a road favorite.  This is a team whose stat profile continues to suffer as a result of a devotion to the pass (57 PA) vs. the run (40 RA).  A split with Carolina and Washington, who badly outrushed and outpassed them for a combined margin of 455-324, offers little confidence for this 5-11 SU, ATS team of last season.  In the ebb and flow of the NFL, side with the value that is the Seattle Seahawks as they shockingly author a rare victory in this 2011 season.  

Movie Free Picks: Jets at Raiders Betting