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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NFL Picks for Sunday Chargers, Panthers and Titans

Joe Gavazzi from the Pregame Pros breaks down some of the football action and is releasing three NFL picks for Sunday below:

Kansas City at San Diego Chargers (-14-) 4:00 PM EST: The Chargers were focused on a fast start.  A split between the Vikings on this field and a loss at New England was not unexpected.  They played well enough to win both games but fell victim to a -4 in the turnover column last week at New England.  Now, they return home to face the reigning divisional champs.  QB Rivers has been explosive and efficient completing 71% at 8.0 YPA.  Since the middle of last season, they have had a history of blowouts as dominant home favorite.  The 0-2 SU, ATS Chiefs are a long way from the 10-7 SU champs of LY.  On offense, one can blame the departure of OC Weis (now having success at Florida) as being a major reason why QB Cassel is floundering at just 3.7 OYPA.  And injuries have taken their toll to key offensive cogs RB Charles and TE Moeaki.  But even defensive injuries cannot make an excuse for a unit that has allowed 45 PPG to resurgent teams Buffalo and Detroit.  But one needs to look no further than a -7 net TOs as contributors to their failure.  Still, the offense has been able to run successfully at 130/5.5.  It says here they will do just enough of that against the San Diego defense, allowing 5.0 YPR, to come in under this number.  

Jacksonville at Carolina (-3-)
1:00 PM EST: Anyone who understands how to beat the spread in the NFL knows what an easy call this is.  All the media hype has fallen to 1st year Carolina QB Newton who has been allowed to launch the ball a combined 83 times the first 2 games by 1st year HC Rivera.  I guess he figures they need to sell seats after going 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS LY.  The result has been a pair of 400 yard passing games by Newton.  But they have only run the ball 48 times for 145 yards.  Combined with a defense that has allowed 29 PPG and 407 YPG, they have gone 0-2 SU against Arizona and Green Bay.  YOU DON’T WIN IN THE NFL WITHOUT A RUNNING GAME AND DEFENSE.  Enter Jacksonville who has split a pair of games against the Titans and Jets.  In so doing, they have stayed true to their personality.  They are outrushing foes 138-72 and have allowed just 288 YPG.  That was with retread McCown at the signal caller spot.  Now, rookie QB Gabbert makes his 1st NFL start ON THE ROAD.  If 9th year HC DelRio can convince him to hand the ball to RB Jones-Drew, the Jags will stay true to their personality and get this victory.

Denver at Tennessee (-6-) 1:00 PM EST: Denver is a bunch of hurting Broncos.  They have been dinged on both sides of the ball including defensive line injuries.  This is not a team worthy of your investment as they make their 1st road trip under 1st year HC Fox.  Remember, they were just 2-6 ATS away LY as part of their 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS season.  Now, they must travel to face a Titans team buoyed by their upset of the Ravens last week.  The 26-13 win was characterized by a 432-229 yardage edge in which they both outrushed and outpassed the Baltimore defense.  Now RB Johnson will continue to work his way back into shape and QB Hasselback will continue to assimilate the offensive schemes of 1st year HC Munchak.  Denver is the perfect opponent against whom the Titans can continue to build their confidence as they look to rebound from a rare losing season in 2010.  

Movie Free Picks: Falcons at Buccaneers -- Best Bet from Vegas Runner
What NFL bettors need to know about Falcons at Buccaneers (Sunday, September 25, 2011) from - Including a free best bet from Vegas Runner and analysis from Bryan Leonard.



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