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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NFL Picks for Panthers, Bears, Steelers, Texans, Dolphins and Chargers

Las Vegas betting experts Vegas Runner and Bryan Leonard break down the football betting action for Sunday with free NFL picks for the Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans, and Miami Chargers at San Diego Chargers. At the end of the football analysis make sure to watch the NFL betting video below where Vegas Runner releases a free NFL Best Bet on the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos game.

Carolina (-6) Chicago 1:00 PM EST
: Each of these teams enters at 1-2 SU.  The Panthers come off their first win of the season to now stand 3-16 SU of late. Their big news is the emergence of rookie QB Newton who threw for 400 plus yards in his first 2 games.  But those were in a shootout against the poor defense of Arizona and a back-door cover vs. a complacent Green Bay team.  In a more competitive game against the Jags last week, he put up just 153 PY in the 16-10 victory.  Now, he must go on the road to face the stingy Chicago defense.  For the Bears, the situation is quite the opposite.  They have faced one of the hardest schedules in the league including Atlanta, NO and GB.  The result is 1-2 SU, ATS.  Their big issue is their OL and OC Martz refusal to establish the ground game.  The last two weeks, he has run just 12 times a game for a combined 73 yards.  And that OL had all kinds of problems protecting QB Cutler.  But the Bears now step way down in class and should be much more comfortable attacking a Panther defense that allows a whopping 9.2 DYPA and 6.8 YPPL.  The combination of the above has resulted in this line being nearly a TD less from where it would have been opening week. 

Pittsburgh at Houston (-3-) 1:00 PM EST: Houston continues to be upwardly mobile at 2-1 SU, ATS, plus 22 AFP.  They now have an experienced OL which keys a run game averaging 138/4.1.  Their offense averages 30 PPG and 401 YPG.  They gave a quality Saints team all they could handle last week, actually outgaining New Orleans in a 40-33 defeat.  This type of offensive fireworks is something that always catches the attention of public money.  Based on the Steelers net -45 AFP in this matchup, the Steelers have swung to the underdog side in a game that would have seen them as a solid favorite opening week.  But Pitt has been on a roller coaster the entire season.  FAT from their Super Bowl appearance, and 3 phony wins in the Preseason, they came flat at avenging Baltimore in Week #1.  A predictable rebound at home vs. lowly Seattle preceded another downer at Indy last Sunday night.  Now, it’s time for the bounce against a team they will respect.  Do they have issues, yes!  The OL continues to have trouble opening holes for a ground game averaging only 86/3.3.  Big Ben often runs for this life.  And they are allowing 30 yards more per game on the ground than last year at 99/4.6.  Though some may say they show their defensive age, their defensive secondary numbers are among the best in the league at 56% completions and 5.0 DYPA.  There is no question about their key statistical number.  They are -7 net turnovers, worst in the league.  To be 2-1 in spite of that is nearly impossible.  That begs for reversal.  Expect the defense to play well and the turnovers to even out.  It clearly makes them the value side at a price that has been way over-adjusted. 

Miami at San Diego (-7) 4:15 PM EST: Miami HC Sparano has exhibited a curious ATS pattern.  The road team is 37-14 ATS in his games with Miami being 19-6 ATS away.  It has been even more divergent of late with the road team in Miami games now 18-4 ATS.  At 0-3 SU, expect full concentration following their blown game at Cleveland last week, a 17-16 loss.  This came despite the fact they controlled the game overland 138-70 and possessed the ball for 38 minutes.  The underachieving Chargers have struggled to 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.  In home favorite wins vs. Minn and KC, they outgained the opposition by a combined 782-439 yards but could get just 7 and 3 point wins.  Sandwiched around their 4 turnover loss at New England leaves one scratching his head.  The Dolphins offense is greatly improved with a ground game averaging 130/4.5 and 398 YPG overall.  The Chargers are outgaining foes by more than 100 YPG but have an 0-3 ATS mark to show for it.  Until they translate that to the scoreboard, it’s hard to back them in this role. 

Movie Free Picks: Broncos at Packers - Best Bet from Vegas Runner
What NFL bettors need to know about Broncos at Packers (Sunday, October 2, 2011) from - Including a free best bet from Vegas Runner and analysis from host Vegas Runner.