NFL Free Agency Winners & Losers + March Madness Betting Guide
As the NFL free agency period heats up and March Madness approaches, sports fans and bettors alike are looking for insights into key player moves, team strategies, and the best betting trends. In this deep dive, we break down the biggest trades, free agency contracts, and how spending affects team performance. Plus, we analyze March Madness contenders using historical trends to help bettors make smart picks for the NCAA Tournament.
NFL Free Agency: Key Moves & Team Outlooks
Biggest QB Moves
- Geno Smith (Seahawks → Raiders): Las Vegas acquires an average but stable QB, giving up a 2025 third-round pick. This move upgrades the Raiders by 3 points in power ratings, potentially increasing their win total to 7 games.
- Sam Darnold (49ers → Seahawks): Signed a three-year, $100M contract. Currently ranked #18 among starting QBs, slightly below Geno Smith (#16). Seattle bets on his upside, but he’s working with a new offensive coordinator in Clint Kubiak.
- Daniel Jones (Giants → Colts): Signs a one-year, $14M deal, making him one of the highest-paid backup QBs in the NFL.
Overpaying in Free Agency?
- DK Metcalf (Seahawks → Steelers): Pittsburgh trades a 2nd-round pick and immediately signs him to a 4-year, $132M extension. Metcalf now earns $33M per year, ranking among the highest-paid WRs.
- Josh Palmer (Chargers → Bills): Buffalo secures him with a 3-year, $36M contract, leaving the Chargers short-handed at WR.
Teams on the Decline?
- Seattle Seahawks: Power rating drops by 1.5 points due to major roster changes. Their win total projection falls to 8 games after losing Geno Smith, adding Sam Darnold, and changing their offensive coordinator.
- Houston Texans: Unlike aggressive spenders, Houston takes a conservative approach, avoiding big free agency signings.
Free Agency Spending & ATS Performance
- Teams that spend the most in free agency often struggle against the spread (ATS).
- Only 5 out of 30 big spenders over the last decade actually improved ATS.
- Example: 2017 Browns spent big and went 0-16 but finished +18.5 ATS, proving bad teams tend to outperform ATS expectations.
March Madness Betting Guide: How to Pick a Champion
The "Winning Formula" for NCAA Champions
Scott Seidenberg’s data-driven system identifies the top title contenders using KenPom efficiency ratings:
- 96% of champions since 2001 had a top 21 offense.
- 91% of champions had a top 31 defense.
- Teams with elite guard play & three-point shooting perform best in March Madness.
Top 4 Contenders Based on the Model
- Duke (#2 offense, #4 defense)
- Auburn (#1 offense, #14 defense)
- Houston (#9 offense, #2 defense)
- Florida (#3 offense, #11 defense)
Best Bet
- Houston (+750) to win the National Championship – Strong defensive efficiency, veteran leadership, and elite three-point shooting (#4 nationally).
March Madness Betting Tips
- First-Half Unders : Tournament games start slower due to nervous teams.
- Second-Half Overs : Teams foul aggressively late to extend games.
- Live Betting Tip : If a favorite is down by 14 with 3 minutes left, bet the over—intentional fouling keeps games high-scoring.
Betting Trends to Watch
NBA Teams to Fade in the Playoffs
- Cleveland Cavaliers have the highest clutch rating in NBA history, but 16 of the last 19 champions had a better overall rating than clutch rating.
- Fading Cleveland in the playoffs could be a profitable strategy.
NFL Win Projections & Betting Angles
- High-spending free agency teams tend to underperform ATS.
- Bad teams (5 wins or fewer) improve significantly the next year.
- Seattle & Houston could be betting opportunities based on market overreactions.
Key Quotes & Analysis
Steve Fezzik on Betting Favorites
"If you bet every favorite, I think they cover 53.5%... No wonder I had a bad year."
Analysis: Favorites covered at a higher rate last year, making it tough for underdog bettors.
RJ Bell on Free Agency Spending
"Spending money in free agency helps you win more games, but nothing helps you win more than losing a bunch the year before."
Analysis: Historically bad teams improve, regardless of how much they spend.
Scott Seidenberg on NCAA Champions
"Every national champion in the last 20 years, except one, was top 20 in both KenPom offense and defense."
Analysis: Only 4 teams fit this model: Duke, Auburn, Houston, and Florida.
RJ Bell on DK Metcalf’s Steelers Contract
"They gave the most they could in a trade and then paid him the most they could… If they paid him any more, it would’ve been ridiculous."
Analysis: Steelers overpaid for a declining WR, possibly limiting their roster flexibility.
Final Takeaways
NFL Free Agency: Geno Smith’s move to the Raiders, Seattle’s roster downgrade, and why teams that overspend in free agency tend to underperform ATS.
March Madness Betting: Houston (+750) is the best title bet based on historical championship trends.
Betting Trends to Watch:
- Fading Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoffs.
- Live betting second-half overs in March Madness.
- Undervalued teams in the NFL, like Houston and Seattle.
Best Bets Right Now
Houston to make the Final Four (+150)
Seattle Seahawks under 8 wins
Cleveland Cavaliers to regress in the playoffs