Sunday NFL and we will see the St Louis Rams take on the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. The game has a start time of 4:05 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on FOX. Current Vegas odds have the Chargers listed as 5.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 43.5.
Analysis: The St Louis Rams pulled off a nice home upset over the Denver Broncos last week, which means they now have beaten both Super Bowl teams in their last 2 home games. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November, but just 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Rams are a very poor offensive team as they come in ranked 29th in total yards, 27th in passing, 20th in rushing and 27th scoring (18.5). The defense has been very average for this team, ranking 17th in yards allowed, 19th vs the pass, 18th vs the run and 25th in points allowed (25.8 ppg).
The San Diego Chargers got off to a hot start and then lost 3 in a row, but last week they got back on track with a very lackluster 13-6 win over the Raiders. Overall the Chargers are 6-4, including 4-1 at home. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs the NFC and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, but 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Chargers have been a below average offensive squad, ranking 22nd in total yards, 14th in passing, 29th in rushing and 17th in scoring (21.8 ppg). The Defense for San Diego has been very solid this year, ranking 9th in yards allowed, 6th vs the pass, 13th vs the run and 6th in points allowed (19.2 ppg).
Pick: I will go with the under in this game. The Chargers offense is not as good as it was in the early part of the year and it starts with Rivers who is banged up a bit and just not making the plays he was. Now vs a tough St Louis pass rush I expect him to have more problems in this game and I also expect more of a running game from the Bolts to help take the pressure off of Rivers. The Charger defense will have to pick up the slack if they hope to win this one and they have been solid this year, especially at home where they have allowed just 12.8 ppg and 271.4 ypg on the year. The St Louis defense has struggled on the road, but they will be taking on a San Diego offense that has scored just 13.5 ppg in their last 4 games. The Under is 23-9 in Rams last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 12-4 in Chargers last 16 games following a S.U. win. Look for this one to be played in the mid-30s.
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