Smart Betting Moves for the 2025 NFL Draft: Dave Essler's Analysis

The NFL Draft remains one of the most intriguing and lucrative opportunities for sharp bettors. Dave Essler from Pregame.com breaks down the landscape for this year’s event, honing in on two key teams and identifying value in a pair of strategic picks. This article explores the rationale behind betting on Ashton Jeanty to the Jaguars and the Raiders' first-round decision.

 Jacksonville Jaguars: Ready for a Running Back Shake-Up

The Jacksonville Jaguars hold the fifth overall pick, and while many mocks pencil in a defensive player like Mason Graham, Dave Essler takes a contrarian view. He points to the Jaguars' lack of depth and long-term certainty at the running back position as a major factor. Travis Etienne is entering the final year of his rookie deal and may not return next season without a significant financial commitment.

Etienne, while explosive at times, averages just 3.8 yards per carry—a stat that undermines his value as a long-term offensive cornerstone. Rumors of a trade only intensify the speculation that Jacksonville is ready to move on. Enter Ashton Jeanty.

Jeanty’s profile as a powerful, downhill runner resembles the type of back that Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson has favored in past offensive systems. A rookie with Jeanty's traits could not only be a better fit but also offer financial efficiency, giving the Jaguars cap flexibility.

Essler believes this is more than speculative buzz—Jeanty is a near-perfect fit both stylistically and strategically. And with Jeanty trading at even money to be the 5th overall pick, there’s an opportunity for bettors to take advantage of the misalignment in public expectations.

 Raiders' Pivot: Offensive Line Over Running Back

The Las Vegas Raiders pick 6th, right after Jacksonville, and have also been mentioned in RB conversations. However, Essler sees a domino effect: if the Jaguars take Jeanty, the Raiders will not pick a running back.

Instead, they are likely to turn their focus to bolstering the offensive line. Essler names Armond Membu from Missouri as the most probable target, citing positional need and Membu's top-tier skill set. With odds of +180 for the Raiders to select an offensive lineman, this wager provides solid value and aligns with draft strategy trends across the league.

 Betting Strategy in a Fluid Draft Market

Essler reminds his audience that the NFL Draft is one of the most volatile betting environments. The key isn't just data analysis but reaction speed. Smart bettors must monitor insider information, NFL Live coverage, and social media platforms like Twitter to spot the earliest signals of shifts in draft boards.

Unlike traditional sports betting markets, where historical performance can guide decisions, draft betting hinges on speculation, rumors, and team strategy leaks. Books lose significant money on NFL Draft markets annually, which means there's still inefficiency to exploit—if you act fast.

 Final Picks and Why They Matter

• Ashton Jeanty to the Jaguars (Pick 5): Strong alignment with team needs, financial logic, and scheme fit.

• Raiders to draft an offensive lineman (Pick 6): Contingent on Jacksonville’s move, and offers attractive odds.

By identifying connections between team strategy and market odds, Essler delivers a sharp, two-pronged betting approach. His method reflects the importance of timing, insider info, and deep analysis—key components of successful draft betting.